Las Vegas, NV - The conversation about Early Voting continues on throughout the country fueled in part by a court ruling in Ohio in which the Republican Party was attempting to prevent the state of Ohio from allowing a window in which citizens could register to vote and cast a ballot early essentially providing a temporary same-day registration period. The Republican Party lost the suit and Early Voting began this week in Ohio.
Early Voting has now been in practice for several election cycles and could prove decisive in several battleground states. In Nevada, it is expected that more than half of all voters will cast ballots before election day. The Washington Post writes that Nov. 4 Isn't the Only Election Day.
The early-voting trend does not benefit one party over the other, experts say, because each is targeting infrequent voters. On the Democratic side, that means urban, often minority voters and students. On the Republican side, it is older voters and those in more rural areas who favor absentee ballots.
For both campaigns, the numbers are critical. In the highly competitive states of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, nearly half of voters are expected to cast ballots early this year, Gronke said.
In Ohio, early voting has shaped the candidates' operations.
Enthusiasm in Ohio over Early Voting prompted people to pitch tents and wait to be the first to cast a ballot. Seeing so many people excited about participating in our democracy and casting a ballot is a positive sign for our country.
Still, 31 states now allow some form of no-excuse, in-person early voting, according to a recent compilation by the National Association of Secretaries of State, an organization of state officials who oversee election laws.
Perhaps one-third of the 2008 electorate will vote before Election Day, counting those who visit "early voting" polling places set up by state authorities and those who use longer-established "absentee ballot" procedures - often limited to those who say they will be out of their home precincts or otherwise unable to make it to a polling station on Election Day - that are available in some form in all 50 states.
As a Nevada resident, Early Voting has been an important part of our election process and has reshaped how parties and candidates plan their get-out-the-vote strategies. I am proud of the fact that our government has engaged in a process to make voting more accessible to citizens. Living in a 24 hour town, there are many voters who would not be able to participate if not for Early Voting.
Today, The New Policy Institute, a non-partisan 501(c)(3) affiliate of NDN, is excited to announce that we are expanding our new Spanish-language voter mobilization campaign, Adelante, into Nevada.
Adelante, Spanish for "Moving Forward," kicked off Tuesday with an extensive radio buy in Colorado and the launch of a Web site, www.adelante08.org. The campaign encourages people to vote and explains the process of voting, including early and absentee voting, to what is projected to be a large pool of first-time Hispanic voters.
Today, Adelante will begin airing the same ad, "Acuérdate," or "Remember," that is airing in Colorado, in the Las Vegas media market. The ad will air on Las Vegas radio stations KISF, KWID, KRGT and KRNN.
The Adelante campaign was launched with the support of people just like you. You can help us add more ads to the campaign and expand into other states by contributing today. Please click here to support Adelante, or contact David O'Donnell at dodonnell@ndn.org or 202-544-9200 to learn more about what you can help the New Policy Institute do.
NDN has been arguing that the GOP would have difficulty courting Hispanic voters this cycle because they damaged their brand with their anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic rhetoric. We are glad that the GOP has finally begun to accept this reality. In today's Politico, David Paul Kuhn, reports that US Senator John McCain is struggling to gain Hispanics because of this issue.
GOP strategist Bill McInturff has long emphasized that earning 40 percent of the Hispanic vote is critical for Republicans to win. Today, McInturff is John McCain's pollster, and by his metric McCain has a serious Latino problem.
While he earned the support of about seven in ten Hispanics in his last Arizona Senate race, a Pew Hispanic Center poll released Thursday shows that just 23 percent of Latinos intend to vote for McCain in the presidential contest, barely half of the four in ten Latino voters who exit polls showed voted for President Bush in 2004.
"You have to understand in a way that the Republican party is damaged among Hispanics," conceded Hessy Fernandez, McCain's spokesperson for Hispanic media.
During the Presidential Primaries this year, I commented on the possibility that U.S. Senator John McCain may not be performing as strong in Arizona as most people would assume, and that there was a possibility that Arizona could be in play in November. As someone who follows demographic and political trends, I noticed that there were several factors that make Arizona competitive. I was delighted to read recently in the NY Times that they have also noticed this opportunity, and a recent Zogby Poll showed McCain losing his home state by 3 points.
The 2006 elections in Arizona provided a lot of reasons to notice that Democrats were performing better in this state, and that the state Republican Party was suffering. However, it was the Super Tuesday Primaries that confirmed to me that McCain was extremely vulnerable in his home state. McCain assumed frontrunner status in the Republican Presidential contests after winning the state of Florida shortly before the Super Tuesday Primaries on February 5th when Arizona held its' contest. The Primary season showed that the all the major candidates performed well in their home states except for John McCain. Former Governor Mike Huckabee received 61% of the vote in Arkansas and former Governor Mitt Romney received 51% in Massachusetts after having withdrawn from the Presidential race. Both of these contests took place on February 14th after John McCain swept the Super Tuesday Primaries. However, McCain only garnered 47% of the vote in Arizona. Less than half of Arizona Republican Primary voters supported John McCain.
So why is it that McCain performed so badly in his home state? Well I think that there are several factors for that. Arizona is one of those southwestern states that are experiencing rapid growth. There are literally thousands of new residents and voters that have never seen McCain's name on a ballot or know what his positions are on relevant issues. Also, McCain has not had a serious challenger for the US Senate since being elected 1986. That is more than two decades of minimal campaigning in his home state, during which Arizona almost doubled its population. Since the 2004 General Election alone there are more than 100,000 new voters in Arizona. You combine that with the fact that the Arizona Democratic Party has been more organized and energized than in previous cycles, and have an incredibly popular leader in Governor Napolitano, and you begin to get a scenario that could prove problematic for McCain.
Finally, you add the Immigration factor and Hispanics. The conventional wisdom during the primaries was that McCain would have an easy task courting Hispanic voters given his previous performance with this constituency. However, this has not been the case. My post a few days ago notes that McCain has been struggling with to reach Hispanics for most of the election cycle.
So you have at least three major factors that are impacting the stability of Arizona as a safe state for McCain: 1) the changing demographics; 2) an improved State Democratic Party; and 3) Hispanic dissatisfaction with McCain. We will save discussion about the Libertarian/Barr factor, the Independent Voters factor, the terrible policies of McCain and his poorly managed campaign for a later post. Although there is still time for McCain to reclaim his home state advantage, the fact that he will have to spend resources doing so means that he won't be able to invest those resources into states like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. This is not a good position for McCain to be in this late in the summer. His troubles will only be more complicated once his campaign and the rest to country also realize that this same scenario is playing out in Texas. Stay tuned for more information on the changing dynamics of the Lone Star State.
Las Vegas, NV - Throughout the Primary elections, several political pundits and news media reported on what they considered was a problem for US Senator Barack Obama. The common perception was that since US Senator Hillary Clinton was outperforming Senator Obama among Hispanic voters by more than 2:1, then this must be a problem for Senator Obama. In addition, they generated much commentary around the assumption that there must be racial tensions among Hispanic and African American voters because Senator Obama was not performing as well as Senator Clinton among this crucial voting group.
That was the Primary though, and now we have moved on to the General election. Every major poll that been released shows Senator Obama leading US Senator John McCain by at least a 2:1 ratio including the most recent NY Times/CBS poll that shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain, 62% to 23%. The question is, when we will see the headline, "Senator McCain has a Latino Problem." In addition, when will we see the news media begin reporting the on the willingness of Hispanic voters to support and African American candidate. If the standard for making the case in the Primary was a 2:1 lead, then shouldn't that same standard be considered now. It is also a real problem for me to know that news media was willing to sensationalize an alleged conflict between Hispanic and African American voters, but lack the appetite to report on the harmony that is now apparent. In fact most reporting on race relations now centers on a potential divide between African American and White voters. The discussion on race relations seems to ignore Hispanics.
I don't know when the news media will begin to accept this reality, but I know that at least Senator McCain understands the gravity of the situation. Senator McCain has been engaging in a full court press to woo Latino voters. He has hired one of the best Hispanic advertising gurus in the business, Lionel Sosa, who guided President Bush to record levels of support among Hispanic voters for a Republican presidential candidate, he is making the rounds at every major conference of the leading national Hispanic organizations, he has launched an aggressive media campaign targeted at Hispanic voters, and is pretty much willing to do whatever it takes to reach out to Hispanic voters. For a Senator who was supposed to have an easy task at courting Hispanic voters, these actions look more like signs of desperation than confidence. At this point, Senator McCain is polling anywhere from 17%-21% lower than President Bush's 2004 levels depending on which polls you reference.
During the 2008 NCLR Annual Conference these past four days, several operatives of Senator McCain's campaign have acknowledged that they are aware of Senator McCain's Latino problem. They state that Senator McCain is suffering from a damaged Republican brand among Hispanic voters due to the GOP's anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic rhetoric over the last couple of years. I think that they are correct that this is a major reason why Senator McCain has a Latino problem, but one of the other important reasons Senator McCain is struggling among Hispanic voters is "trust." Senator McCain tried to address this issue during the NCLR conference by stating that he hopes his past actions have earned the "trust" of Hispanic voters. However, the Senator McCain that we know today is not the same as the Senator McCain we knew of before, and Senator McCain we just don't know if we can trust you anymore. The NY Times/CBS Poll states that 59% of Hispanics think Senator McCain does not believe his own rhetoric. This above all else is why Senator McCain has a Latino problem.
UPDATE***
Shortly after posting this, I recieved polling information from Gallup on the issue of race relations between Hispanics and African Americans. I think that the information is very important so, I am posting there findings here.
The generally positive review of black-Hispanic relations in Gallup polling among members of the two leading U.S. minority groups contrasts with considerable media speculation about the impact of Hispanic animosity toward blacks in this year's primary elections.
Some of that commentary has speculated that the trend is getting worse as the Hispanic population grows and starts to outnumber blacks in some neighborhoods and entire cities. Others posit that older Hispanics are more likely than the younger generation to harbor biases and resentments against blacks.
In a January 2008 New York Times article titled, "In Obama's Pursuit of Latinos, Race Plays Role," the authors write, "Mr. Obama confronts a history of often uneasy and competitive relations between blacks and Hispanics, particularly as they have jockeyed for influence in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. 'Many Latinos are not ready for a person of color,' Natasha Carrillo, 20, of East Los Angeles, said. 'I don't think many Latinos will vote for Obama. There's always been tension in the black and Latino communities. There's still that strong ethnic division. I helped organize citizenship drives, and those who I've talked to support Clinton.'"
While black-Hispanic animosity may exist and could even have been a factor in some state caucuses or primaries, the Gallup data indicates it is not overwhelmingly obvious to members of either group. Whites are much more likely to believe the two are in conflict.
San Diego, CA - US Senator John McCain delivered an impressive performance today to the conference attendees at NCLR. I must admit that he performed much better than I was expecting. Senator McCain focused on his support for improving relations with Latin America (something that NDN had been promoting through our Latin American Policy Initiative), the importance for assisting small businesses to help the economy, he spoke of the contributions that many Hispanics provide to our Armed Forces and yes he spoke of immigration. Although he did not provide the rock star atmosphere that was evident during Senator Obama's speech, he kept the audience engaged and informed. It is no secret that I disagree with many of Senator McCain's positions, and that I have criticized him for betraying Hispanics when he walked away from his own bill to pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, but you have to give credit where credit is due. Senator McCain acknowledged that he was not in the most friendly room given recent polls that show Hispanics favoring Senator Obama by 2 to 1, and yet he still allowed the audience to pepper him with questions that were clearly difficult for him to address. In the most important exchange, at least in my opinion, Senator McCain was asked to clarify if his modified position on immigration that emphasizes border enforcement would be submitted in ONE bill or separate bills. Senator McCain stated that his proposal would be ONE bill that includes a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented immigrants in this country, but would provide for securing the border first. This is an important clarification to make because he has not made this statement before. NDN has advocated over the past few years that any Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill must include all aspects in one bill as opposed to multiple bills that deal with the various issues of immigration reform. This statement is significant, and it is important for immigration activists to confirm that this is in fact his position, and hold him to this position.
Tomorrow, I will be speaking on a panel titled - Latino Voters: Making their mark on the 2008 Election. For more info on the panel click here. Exciting times my friends, Iand will report back tomorrow.
San Diego, CA - Today, US Senator Barack Obama delivered an electrifying speech that moved the crowd on several occasions. I have now seen Senator Obama deliver this speech three times, and each time has has done better. Today was by far his best performance. Senator Obama addressed the major issues of the Economy, Education, Health Care and Comprehensive Immigration Reform. About 2000 guest were able to see Obama deliver his speech, while another several thousand were unable to enter the room due to overcrowding. Senator Obama has demonstrated a sincere interest in courting Hispanic voters with his efforts over the last few weeks. Tomorrow, US Senator John McCain will address the conference, but by the reaction of today's crowd I don't think that he will do as well.
Also Maria Peña from EFE wrote an article previewing Senator Obama's speech as well as dissecting the Hispanic outreach strategies of both presidential campaigns. The article includes a quote from me talking about the importance of being able to communicate in Spanish to many Hispanic voters. You can read the article here.
San Diego, CA - Greetings from San Diego! Today was an exciting first day at the NCLR Annual Conference. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa addressed the conference during the opening luncheon, and there is much hype surrounding the pending speeches of US Senator Barack Obama and US Senator John McCain in the coming days. You can feel the excitement of the conference attendees about gathering in the Golden State and tackling some of the most pressing issues impacting the Hispanic community. I am fortunate to be able to speak at the conference, and look forward to engaging the crowd on the importance of Hispanic voters in the 2008 election. In the meantime, I look forward to hearing from the other panelists and giving you updates on what is going on. Stay tuned and Stay Classy!
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