Marc Ambinder over at the Atlantic does a good job summing up today's political messaging as it relates to the economy. In "Fannie, Freddie, or the Future," Ambinder argues that speaking about the future of the American economy is a better political strategy, and, that going for the gutter, as the McCain camp announced they were going to do, while politically enticing, might not be the best way to win (especially executed this poorly).
[Keating economics] successfully jammed up McCain's message of the day, which is that Obama is somehow to blame for the excesses of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Blaming Democrats for Fannie and Freddie's collapse -- implicity, blaming the government for giving people home loans who couldn't afford -- isn't beanbag, but the McCain campaign is using it the way that Democrats used to respond to foreign policy questions: by stumbling around, latching on to a poll-tested response, and ignoring the bigger picture.
Ayers and Keating aside, the leading edge of this debate is about what do we do post-bailout to restore confidence in our economy. The public will rightly pressure both candidates for more answers. It's an opportunity for somebody to come up with a newer, global message. or at least sound like they get the international dimension of our meltdown.
Hitting back with the Keating Five was political necessity from the Obama camp, and as Ambinder writes, has worked today, but Obama's real strength in recent weeks has come on the back of his strong response to the financial crisis. The current narrative about Obama's calm reaction compared with McCain's erratic reaction, believeable because it reinforced preexisting memes about both candidates, will serve Obama well for the next month.
Now, as the Obama campaign launches its Keating Economics piece, Obama himself expands his message on the economy and hits McCain on trying to turn the page. Today in Asheville, North Carolina, Obama had this to say:
We are going to have to then move on an aggressive plan to deal with some of the underlying structural problems in the economy, including the continuing decline in the housing market. Now Senator McCain and I have a debate tomorrow night, and obviously the American people are going to be anxious to hear from one of the two people who’s going to be the next president and responsible for dealing with this economic mess, what their plans are.
As NDN has argued, that plan must include action from Congress and the President to do more to keep people in their homes. For more on NDN's reponse to the financial crisis, visit Keep People in Their Homes.
Two major articles in today's Washington Post and New York Timesfocus in-depth on how the nation's worsening economy is presenting new opportunities -- and new challenges -- for the campaigns of U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain.
It looks like things were going McCain's way after the GOP convention -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had electrified the base, Obama was losing ground and the Arizona senator took a slim lead.
Then the nation's finanical markets crashed, Palin-mania has subsided as many Americans didn't like what they've seen post-St. Paul and Democrats traditionally do better with pocketbook issues.
Now McCain has pulled out of Michigan and Obama is competitive in traditionally red states like Florida where foreclosures are epidemic; nationally, the economic news just keeps getting worse.
Amidst all of this, yesterday, I picked up a book, "Deer Hunting with Jesus" by Joe Bageant. It is in turn fascinating, frightening and depressing. The book addresses a question that has always bothered me: why do people who are so clearly hurt by the GOP's economic policies keep voting for them again and again and again? Another article in today's Washington Post highlights the economic struggles of a suburban Michigan enclave and focues on why, while some people there may vote for Obama, others struggling to make ends meet are still planning to vote for McCain, despite the fact that his economic proposals do nothing to help them or their children.
Until progressives find a way to reach the voters written about in "Deer Hunting with Jesus" and the Washington Post article, we will continue to lose their votes because they will continue to vote, not on economic issues, but social "hot button issues" such as abortion, guns and sex education. And, sadly, as many of them admitted, they simply will not vote for an African-American candidate. All in all, it is not their failure, but our failure, to explain to them how we will not allow globalization to leave them behind; how we will invest in their education; how we will ready them as we accelerate toward a 21st century economy.
In 2007, NDN conducted a series of polls on the how Americans view the economy. They are well worth reading here and here. I know I will be looking at them for answers.
Lastly, in what can be at best called a sophmoric effort to change the subject, the McCain campaign said yesterday that:
We are looking for a very aggressive last 30 days," said Greg Strimple, one of McCain's top advisers. "We are looking forward to turning a page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans." "We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity. [Washington Post, 10/04/08]
In response, the Obama campaign has launched a new ad on the economy, highlighting what has happened over the last eight years during the Bush-Cheney reign.
For the last several years NDN has been making an argument that a "new politics" of the 21st century is emerging. Driven by vast changes in demography, media and technology, and the a whole new set of very 21st century challenges (and one could add the utter collapse of modern conservatism) a new politics was emerging in America that would be very different from the century just past.
Reflecting on the morning papers 3 stories stuck out as interesting examples of how the world is changing around us. 1st up is how the Army is starting to see nation building and the shoring up of "fragile states" as a primary area of responsibility. 2nd is a fascinating piece by Eve Fairbanks on the sensibility of the next generation of Congressional Republicans. Finally, a wide ranging and important piece by our friend David Rothkopf, who argues:
The current economic debacle is far more likely to be seen by historians as a true global watershed: the end of one period and the beginning of another. The financial chaos has brought down the curtain on a wide range of basic and enduring tenets also closely linked with the Reagan era, those associated with neoliberal economics, the system that the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has called "that grab-bag of ideas based on the fundamentalist notion that markets are self-correcting, allocate resources efficiently and serve the public interest well." Already this crisis has seen not just our enemies but even some of our closest allies wondering whether we are at the beginning of the end of both American-style capitalism and of American supremacy.
Change is indeed coming to Washington. And this next Presidency will without doubt be among the most important in American history.
A tough day on the job front. The U.S. Department of Labor reported today that the U.S. economy shed 159,000 jobs in September, the biggest monthly decline since 2003. Earlier estimates had job losses closer to 100,000. These numbers don’t reflect fallout from the most recent financial crisis, since the survey was conducted the week of September 8. Is it any solace that the unemployment held steady at about 6 percent? David Leonhardt of the New York Times has a good analysis of the report.
On the campaign trail today in Pennsylvania, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama spoke of the job losses, while getting in some digs at VP candidate, Gov. Sarah Palin:
You know, there were a lot of noteworthy moments in that debate, but there’s one that sticks out this morning. It’s when Governor Palin said to Joe Biden that our plan to get our economy out of the ditch was somehow a job killing plan.
I wonder if she turned on the news this morning.
Because it was just reported that America has experienced its ninth straight month of job loss. Just since January, we’ve lost more than 750,000 jobs across America, 7,000 in Pennsylvania alone. This is the economy that John McCain said – just two weeks ago – was fundamentally strong. This is the economy that my opponent said made great progress under the policies of George W. Bush. And those are the economic policies that he proposes to continue for another four years.
So when Senator McCain and his running mate talk about job killing, that’s something they know a thing or two about. Because the policies they’re supporting are killing jobs every single day.
As the economy worsens, Obama’s prospects brighten, as politics go. Yesterday’s new Pew survey indicates that in just the past couple of weeks, the number of voters who view Obama more favorably than McCain on the economy and financial crisis has grown. The bad news on the economy has helped to expose McCain’s empty plans to create jobs and restore prosperity, and allowed Obama to flesh out his economic plans and demonstrate his dexterity on the issues. His ads in which he talks directly to the camera about his economic program, feel authentic and reveal an organized, focused mind in the midst of chaos on Wall Street and Capitol Hill.
Yesterday, Fox News gave Michael Moynihan and NDN's Green Project a lot of the credit (or blame? You Decide...) for getting legislation to create a Clean Energy Investment Bank into the House. Michael also got good mentions from the Carbon Tax Center and Carbon Control News.
The Washington Post and HispanicTips.com covered the expansion of NDN affiliate The New Policy Institute's Adelante campaign, which has new ads airing in the DC Metro area in addition to Colorado and Nevada. The Statesman also covered the campaign.
Finally, Simon is quoted in The American Prospect this week on the internal dynamics of the evolving Democratic majority in Congress.
New York City -- Stuff happens, but in dissecting financial disasters, more often than not, it turns out that some singular event--usually regulatory--not mere chance, opened the gates to abuse. In the S&L fiasco in the 1980s, one such event was the success by lobbyists in winning a rule change that allowed them to take unlimited brokered deposits, ie deposits not from you and me opening accounts, but through financial markets. From that point on, many banks bid for deposits with little thought of the interest rate, lent the money without oversight and, when markets turned downward, a disaster ultimately occured.
This time around, while there is still a sense that our current crisis just happened, the New York Timesreports today that, once again, it was not an accident. As revealed in the article, in 2004, in an obscure meeting held in the basement of the SEC building, Commissioners voted to approve a proposal by lobbyists of Wall Street's biggest firms, led by Goldman Sachs, to change the rules to allow the firms to increase their rates of leverage on equity up to 33 to 1. As long as their returns were greater than the cost of borrowing, this allowed them to juice their returns. However, one or two bad investments at this leverage--for example in sub-prime loans--had the ability to go diastrously awry, wiping out the firm's entire equity. This, in essence, is what has happened to the entire financial industry. It turns out there is a smoking gun in this crisis, a rule change secured by lobbyists--that had disastrous effects.
The Times goes on to report that in exchange for the unprecedented leverage, the firms promised to monitor their risk and the SEC set up an office to monitor risk as well. Unfortunately, the office never became functional. A software consultant and MBA who designed software used by banks to monitor risk was the lone dissenter in a letter to the SEC. However, his letter and advice were ignored and the rule was approved unanimously.
Had the SEC followed through on the oversight it was supposed to perform, the consequences might not have been so dire. But dergulation combined with abdication of all responsibility by the regulator, the SEC, provided fatal. And we are now seeing the consequences.
Earlier this morning, Simon highlighted the findings of a new CBS poll that show U.S. Sen. Barack Obama gaining significant ground on U.S. John McCain. Also in the poll were new findings that economic anxiety is as high as it has ever been in the history of the poll. Now, we don't need polls to tell us that things are grim out there, but the data here was startling nevertheless. Nine in ten Americans say the economy is in very bad or fairly bad shape, the highest measure since The Times and CBS News began asking the question in 1986. Less than one percent of those polled said the economy was in very good shape. Americans aren't seeing an end to the gloom -- 76 percent say the economy is getting worse, the most pessimistic Americans have been since the question was first asked in 1974. Ugh. Sounds like a good time for a changing of the guard at the White House.
A trillion here, a trillion there... A new ad from Barack Obama critiques John McCain for his profligate spending plan. Obama wonders: Can we afford John McCain?
With news coming that the Senate has loaded up the bailout bill with a number of tax provisions, including an AMT patch and crucial tax credits for renewable energy, the House vote on the proposal, should it pass the Senate, looks to be a defining moment for pay-go.
Pay-go has been the largest stumbling block in extending renewable energy tax credits – a package so popular that it recently passed the Senate with a vote of 93 to 2. Now, a bipartisan agreement by Leaders Reid and McConnell to include these provisions in the bailout bill, which is predicted to pass the Senate tonight, will only be derailed if some in the House continue to insist on pay-go.
NDN has long argued that pay-go creates far too much arbitrary, artificial rigidity in the legislative and governing processes, and this bailout serves as a perfect example. Should a bipartisan bill designed to rescue the economy on the order of $700 billion fail due to a pay-go fight over far less costly tax provisions that are partially offset, the legacy of pay-go, a provision that doubtless has limited life to it anyway, will go from murky to downright laughable.
As the economy slides into recession, one can only hope that the popularity and job creation benefits of the tax credits, especially those for renewable energy, will garner enough votes to more than offset the votes lost from pay-go proponents.
In yet another episode of the Sarah Palin-Katie Couric serial interview saga, Palin talked to the CBS anchorwoman about issues ranging from what newspapers she reads (she didn't name a specific one) to whether a 15-year-old girl raped by her father should have access to an abortion (she would encourage the child not to).
The interview aired last night and follows previous Palin-Couric interviews, which have been seen as disastrous for Palin, as she stumbled her way through them or just stopped talking and started smiling. I haven't yet been able to find the rumored segment of a portion of a Palin-Couric interview in which the Alaska governor can name only one U.S. Supreme Court decision (Roe V. Wade). If anyone unearths it, please let me know.
Notably, the Couric interviews have prompted criticism not only from Democrats, but also from prominent conservatives, including George Will.
One interesting tidbit: making small talk between different segments of the interview, Palin did make a candid admission to Couric that, "Sweat is my sanity." Seems moose hunting has taken a backseat for the time being.
With a few exceptions here and there (like not being able to name a single newspaper), Palin seems a bit surer of herself in this interview.
You can judge for yourself here:
Palin also found time to do a radio interview that involved decidedly more softballs (and decidely more six-packs).
According to ABC News:
In a radio interview with conservative blogger and columnist Hugh Hewitt, Palin says she’s not concerned by criticisms of her performance in recent network interviews with ABC's Charles Gibson and CBS' Katie Couric, which many -- including some former conservative supporters -- have said showed her unprepared to be vice president.
"Oh, I think they're just not used to someone coming in from the outside saying you know what? It's time that normal Joe six-pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency, and I think that that's kind of taken some people off guard, and they’re out of sorts, and they’re ticked off about it," Palin told Hewitt.
Palin, who has complained this week about “gotcha journalism” on the campaign trail, told Hewitt that she invites the scrutiny, and that her recent media appearances have helped her better articulate her positions and prepare for her upcoming vice presidential debate with Sen. Joe Biden on Thursday.
“I have a degree in journalism also, so it surprises me that so much has changed since I received my education in journalistic ethics all those years ago,” Palin said when asked by Hewitt whether the Gibson and Couric interviews felt like “pop quizzes designed to embarrass” her. "I’m going to take those shots and those pop quizzes and just say that’s okay, those are good testing grounds. That makes somebody work even harder. It makes somebody be even clearer and more articulate in their positions. So really I don’t fight it. I invite it.”
And more from ABC News on Palin's new Joe Six-Pack gambit:
As the political world braces for Wednesday's Wall Street bailout vote in the U.S. Senate, Sarah Palin is stepping up her "Joe-Six Pack" pitch.
"It's time that normal Joe Six-Pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency, and I think that that's kind of taken some people off guard, and they're out of sorts, and they're ticked off about it," Palin said Tuesday on the Hugh Hewitt show. "But it's motivation for John McCain and I to work that much harder to make sure that our ticket is victorious, and we put government back on the side of the people of Joe Six-Pack like me."
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