Clinton

From Rasmussen's site:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows
Barack Obama’s bounce growing to an eight-point lead over John McCain.
Obama now attracts 48% of the vote while McCain earns 40%.

When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 50% to 43%. On Tuesday, just
before Obama clinched the nomination, the candidates were tied at 46%...

Obama’s bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic
Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for
Obama over McCain. That’s the highest level of party support ever
enjoyed by Obama.

Remember CBS/NYTimes had it 48-42 earlier this week, and Reuters had it 48-40 just before that. My guess is that Obama will be up ten in most polls soon. The question will be what can McCain do to alter the emerging dynamic in the race?

Monday midday update: The new Gallup track also shows an Obama bounce, with the race going from even to 48-42 for Senator Obama.  Note the consistency of all the polls now, with them all showing a high forties for Obama, low forties for McCain, race. 

Was truly great today. I am very proud of her.

Whatever else has happened this year, Senator Clinton has stepped out of the long shadow of her husband, and has become a true and powerful national leader in her own right. She may now indeed be the more influential of the two of this remarkable husband and wife team.

Today, voters in sports-rich U.S. Territory Puerto Rico head to the polls to allocate its 55 delegates to the Democratic Convention in Denver. Voters from Rio Piedras, home of Golf Hall of Fame member Juan Antonio "Chi-Chi" Rodriguez, to Carolina, home to baseball legend and Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente, will dodge scattered thundershowers as they head to the polls between 8 a.m. and 3 p.m. AST (one hour ahead of ET).

With 55 Delegates up for grabs Puerto Rico is the biggest remaining prize this election season, and the candidates have spent significant time and resources trying to earn votes. Senator Obama launched what we believe to be the first ad in presidential politics where the likely nominee of either party spoke entirely in Spanish; and Senator Clinton is campaigning across the island on the back of a flat bed truck, going town to town and street to street to win over voters.

Polling has been very scarce and unreliable in Puerto Rico. Univision's poll from May 20th that showed Senator Clinton with a 19 point lead was the most recent public polling done on the race. The poll did not reflect likely voters and took place over a 12 day period in early May.

Presidential Primaries are not common in Puerto Rico - the last three have been cancelled because the nominee was already decided. Former President Bill Clinton was the last winner of the Puerto Rican Democratic presidential primary in 1992; Jesse Jackson won the island in 1988.

In 2004, 81.4% of registered voters turned out to vote for Puerto Rico's Governor, further proving that, historically, Puerto Rican voters rank among the worlds most active balloters. However, voters are frustrated and many plan to stay home rather than participate in what they deem an essentially unnecessary and nonbinding $2.5 million dollar election because Puerto Rico does not get to vote for the president in the general election.

Hoy los votantes en el territorio estadounidense de Puerto Rico, famoso por el gran número de deportistas exitosos de origen boricua, acuden a las urnas para consignar los 55 delegados del territorio a la Convención Demócrata en Denver.  Votantes de Rió Piedras, lugar de origen del golfista reconocido en el Salón de Fama Juan Antonio Chi-Chi Rodríguez, a Carolina, hogar de la leyenda de béisbol Roberto Clemente, van a ir a las urnas esquivando tormentas entre las horas de 8 a.m. y 3 p.m. AST.  

Con 55 Delegados en juego, Puerto Rico es el premio mayor en lo que resta de esta temporada electoral, y los candidatos han empleado bastante tiempo y recursos tratando de ganar votos.  El Senador Obama lanzó el primer comercial en la historia de política presidencial donde el probable nominado de un partido habla exclusivamente en español; y la Senadora Clinton esta haciendo campaña a lo largo de la isla subida en un remolque tocando música salsa, yendo de municipio a municipio y de calle a calle tratando de ganarse a los votantes.

Las encuestas han sido escasas y poco fiables en Puerto Rico.  Un sondeo de Univisión del 20 de Mayo demostrando que la Senadora Clinton llevaba una ventaja de 19 puntos sirvió como el sondeo público más reciente para la elección.  El sondeo no reflejó la opinión de votantes probables y se llevó acabo a lo largo de 12 días en Mayo.

Elecciones primarias no son comunes en Puerto Rico – las últimas tres fueron canceladas debido a que ya se había decidido el candidato nombrado por los partidos.  El ex-presidente Bill Clinton fue el último ganador de la elección primaria presidencial en Puerto Rico en 1992; Jesse Jackson ganó la elección primaria en la isla en 1988.

En el 2004, 81.4% de los votantes registrados salieron a votar para el gobernador de Puerto Rico, demostrando que, históricamente, los votantes Boricua se encuentran entre los participantes más activos del mundo.  Sin embargo, muchos votantes están frustrados con el proceso y piensan quedarse en casa en vez de participar en lo que ellos ven como una elección de $2.5 millones de dólares que es esencialmente inútil y no vinculante, ya que Puerto Rico no vota en la elección presidencial general en Noviembre. 

After the DNC rules committee decided that Florida and Michigan's delegates will be seated and count as half a vote each, the number needed to clinch the nomination has gone up to 2,117 and in turn each candidate's magic number has changed.

Based on the assumption that the remaining three states will break 55-45 for Senator Clinton, Senator Obama now needs 26 or 5% of the undeclared superdelegates to win the nomination.

With the decision by the rules committee today, Senator Clinton is still mathematically viable, but then again, mathematically the Kansas City Royals still have a chance to win the World Series. Senator Clinton needs 194 or 95% of the remaining superdelegates in order to sew up the nomination.

Go Pens!

Daily Kos is keeping and up-to-date ticker of pledged delegates and superdelegates as the Democratic Primaries begin to wrap up this weekend with Sunday's Puerto Rican Primary, followed by contests in Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday, accounting for a combined 86 delegates.

With the news today that Meredith Wood Smith of Oregon and Pat Waak of Colorado, both Democratic Party Chairs and Superdelegates, have endorsed Senator Obama, the Kos chart suggests that Senator Obama's Magic Number is 46.

Although no polling is available for Puerto Rico, we can reasonably assert that Senator Obama will pick up no less than 45% of the vote in the final three elections of the primary season, which will net Senator Obama around 38 delegates. This cuts his magic number down to 8.

197 Superdelgates are still unpledged. If they play by Chairman Dean's rules and make their selection by June 3, we should see an average of 28 endorsements a day. Senator Obama needs to pick up 8 of these endorsements, or 4%.

Senator Obama may need more Superdelegates pending the results of this weekend's decision by the DNC Rules Committee. We will be tracking the magic number for Senator Obama and Senator Clinton every morning as more Superdelegates reveal themselves.

In our long essay about the future of left of center politics, Peter Leyden and I point out that Democrats have won 19 states worth 248 electoral college votes in each of the last four presidential elections. This group includes important states like PA and MI. It is this analysis which has led us to argue that the true battleground of this election will be in the heavily Hispanic states of AZ, CO, FL, NM and NV (and a handful of other states like OH, MO, IA, NH and perhaps NC, WI and VA).

One of the big arguments coming from both the McCain and Clinton camps has been that Obama cannot win those northern industrial states so critical to this Democratic map, and that they can. But is this true? Can McCain, in this environment in which the GOP is weaker today than it has been since at least 1982, and perhaps the 1960s, really think about winning a general election state they have not won since 1988? I have always believed that once a Democratic nomiee was picked, those 248 Electoral College votes would begin to settle in for the nominee and the game would move to the battleground described above, which in recent years was won by the GOP.

A new Survey USA poll of Pennsylvania indicates that as Obama begins his transition from candidate to nominee, that these traditional Democratic states may be reverting back to form. This new poll has Obama beating Senator McCain in PA by 8 points, 48-40, well outside the margin of error -- and this is before Senator Obama has been officially crowned the nominee. Another poll has the uber battleground of Ohio even. I've seen other recent polls that have Obama within a few points of McCain in Texas and Arizona (driven to some degree by the Hispanic community's aggressive abandonment of the GOP).

While it is early, and these polls will bounce around, looking at the national polls (A new Reuters poll released today has Obama up 8) and new state polls, there is growing evidence that Obama is successfully bringing the Democratic Party together, is winning over key Clinton constituencies and that his much discussed weakness with certain white voters is not carrying over to the general election battlefield in any meaningful way.

It also means that we will be seeing an unprecedented national campaign for the Hispanic vote, a battle which Senator McCain begins in a very weakened position and without a lot he can do to change a very anti-GOP dynamic that has taken hold in the Hispanic community.

Incredibly, Senator Clinton has revived her efforts to persuade us that the votes of people in Florida and Michigan - two states she agreed along with all the other candidates to ignore and sanction - should count, and that she has thus won more votes than Senator Obama.

In a recent post I argued it was time for the Clinton to let go of the Florida and Michigan fantasy and to recognize this case was doing grevious harm to her with the superdelegates in the other 48 states and 6 territories.

West Virginia. 

Then NARAL.  Edwards.  Lots of new supers.  Boom.  Obama strikes back.  Hard.

If Senator Clinton doesn't announce a new round of new money in the next few days, this could be over very soon.  As I wrote the other day, it really is all about the money now. 

Two central dynamics are now taking over the Presidential campaign - the enormous, even historic, structural advantage of the Democrats, and Obama's new "surge", brought about through the early stages of his imminent victory over Senator Clinton.

Poll after poll these last few years have documented the emergence of a whole new political dynamic in American politics - the end of the conservative ascendency, the collapse of the GOP brand and the rise of the Democratic brand. Simply put, the country is more Democratic today than it has been since at least 1982 and perhaps all the way back to the 1960s. Today's Washington Post has a new national poll which again captures the yawning gap between the two parties, and the strong wind blowing behind the Democrats as they head into 2008 (for further evidence of this note huge fundraising and turnout advantage for the Dems so far in 2008).

A big looming question over the Presidential race has always been would the Democratic nominee be able to match the 10-15 spread between the two parties, resulting in what could be a truly realigning election and the dawn of a new progressive era? So far there has been little evidence of this, and indications have largely pointed to a very close general election.

But in the last week, there are signs that Obama's slowly emerging "victory" over Senator Clinton is beginning to alter that dynamic. Winners often get a bounce from their victory. It can be a few points or much more. And given that Senator Clinton is still in the race, it would be surprising for the Obama bounce to be more than a few points. But looking at the Post poll, the new LA Times poll, Rasmussen and Gallup, there is evidence that Obama is in the early stages of a bounce. He now leads Senator Clinton in all these polls by a larger margin than he has at any time in the campaign, consistently in double digits now (destroying her argument to be a stronger general election candidate). But he also is now starting to show three, six and in the Post poll, seven point advantages over Senator McCain.

While the Post makes the case that at this point McCain is outperforming the GOP and is showing remarkable early strength, I think that interpretation, while partially true, does not really capture what is happening in the race (particularly on the day GOPer Bob Barr entered the race, again showing how hard it is going to be for McCain to take full control over his party). Given the nature of the Democratic race, we really have no idea what a true McCain-Obama match up looks like. Senator Obama has yet to go through his ascension to be the Democratic chief, and all the public benefit that accrues from winning. This week, we are starting to see the public in the early stages of seeing Obama now as the Democratic nominee, and his numbers are rising across the board. But has he has not yet really won yet. I don't think at this stage he has risen as far has he will once Senator Clinton drops out of the race. He is in a sort of "mid-bounce." Which given that Senator Obama is now up mid- single digits now without having fully won, and given that the structural gap between the two parties is between 10-15 points, means he is likely to keep climbing over the next few weeks.

So, to me, this new Post poll should not be a comfort to the GOP, but yet another reminder of the catastrophic legacy of the age of Bush, and another early sign of what may be an historic realigning election to come in 2008 (the Mississippi House Special Election will be another sign).

For more on the dawn of a new political era, be sure to read our recent magazine article, The 50-Year Strategy: A New Progressive Era.

The Rasmussen daily track has seen a 15 point shift from Clinton to Obama in the last ten days. The last two nights of their daily track now has Obama up over Clinton by 11 points, the largest margin yet recorded, and him up over McCain by 4, 47-43. Obama appears to be getting a "bounce" from Tuesday night.

Given the generic numbers for President and Congress (Dems up 10-15 points), I fully expect that once Obama secures the nomination, and Clinton ends her campaign, for him to get a significant bump and to be in front of McCain by at least high single digits. This new poll is the first evidence that we may be seeing this scenerio beginning to be playing out already. It will be interesting to see what other polls show in the coming days, and how the media coverage of Clinton's likely victory in WV affects this possible new dynamic.

Given her already weakened financial state, if a national swing like this is actually happening and shows up in other polls over the next few days, it is going to make it very hard for Senator Clinton to go on past next week.

We will see.

Sat 4pm Update - Gallup now also shows significant movement to Obama. Again still early to say this is a definitive across the board bounce, but these 2 major tracks have both now shown real movement to Obama these last few days.