Obama

Over the past couple of months, and especially this last week, I've spent many hours walking the city of Cincinnati, banging on doors and talking to voters as a volunteer with the Obama campaign. The city's small urban core is economically diverse, a patchwork of single-family homes with stunning Ohio River views, working class African-American and white American communities, and distressing pockets of dilapidated homes and piles of trash. The more unemployment, vacant buildings, and empty houses I observed, the more Obama-Biden signs and stickers stuck in windows and on lawns.

The economy, as we know, was issue number one in this election. In exit polls conducted yesterday (as reported by the New York Times), 6 in 10 voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. Most of these voters went for Obama. Four out of five voters said they worried that the economic crisis would harm their family's finances over the next year. Again, these voters went for Obama. About 4 in 10 voters said their family's financial situation was worse today than four years ago. These voters went for Obama three to one.

We'd be fools to think that Obama and his team can work miracles for our economy. But in the final months of his campaign, he addressed our country's economic downturn head-on, without fear. He didn't try to change the subject or pull political stunts. If nothing else, he gave off the impression that he understood the struggles of everyday Americans who work hard to make a living, or who've been denied a chance to compete in a 21st century economy. Even to Joe the Plumber, Obama took the time to explain his tax plan, with patience and concern. His tax plan seeks to take the burden off the middle class and asks the wealthiest of Americans to, well, share the wealth. Income inequality robs economic resources from our middle class, entrepreneurs, small business owners -- the true engines of our economy. Obama offers hope at a time of uncertainty and for now, that's good enough.

As many of you know I've been using the polling aggregate and maps of Real Clear Politics as my baseline.  A new and interesting site, 538, takes a very tough look at their performance in the last few weeks. 

I've been a long time fan of the Obama campaigns use of mobile media to date, and today they took their mobile strategy a step further.

They lanched a native iPhone/iPod Touch application that connects you directly into the campaign over your device in a number of innovative ways.

You can download it today for free from the official iPhone Application store, but here are the features as described on the campaign page:

My early review of the application very positive. Especially impressive is that when you choose Local Events the App checks your GPS location (for iPhone users) to find the closest campaign office near you at that time. Nice. 

Also for iPhone users: Call friends is a great feature that remembers that this is a PHONE application not simply a small Desktop app. As the author of the app describes this feature:  "It organizes and prioritizes your contacts by key battleground states... Caller stats are then aggregrated anonymously to a leaderboard within the application displaying key stats such as the number of callers and total calls made."

The Obama campaign continues to define and evolve what political mobile media outreach is. All iPhone and iPod Touch users interested in what that can mean should definitely check out this new application.

Earlier, Simon mentioned that he could look at the map on RCP all day, showing Obama/Biden 273 - McCain/Palin 265. However, polls released in 11 of the 12 swing states today show the race being within two points. U.S. Sen. John McCain holds a narrow margin in Ohio and is tied in two of the three Florida polls.

This week, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in New Mexico has taken a 7-point lead in McCain's backyard. However, polls in New Hampshire, which voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004, show McCain up three points. New Hampshire, which has been a historically strong state for McCain, could put a dent into the Democratic domination of the northeast if this margin holds.

COLORADO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%.
COLORADO (Insider Advantage): Obama - 51%, McCain - 41%, Others - 2%.
FLORIDA (National Journal/FD): Obama - 44%, McCain - 44%.
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 51%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
FLORIDA (ARG): Obama - 46%, McCain - 46%, Others - 3%.
INDIANA (Indianapolis Star/Selzer): Obama - 47%, McCain - 44%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 1%.
INDIANA (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 47%, Obama - 43%, Others - 2%.
MICHIGAN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 44%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%.
MINNESOTA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 45%, McCain - 43%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (ARG): McCain - 50%, Obama - 45%.
NEVADA (ARG): McCain - 49%, Obama - 46%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG): McCain - 48%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
NEW MEXICO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 49%, McCain - 42%.
NEW MEXICO (ARG): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
OHIO (National Journal): McCain - 42%, Obama - 41%.
OHIO (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 43%, Obama - 42%, Others - 2%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 43%, McCain - 42%, Others - 1%
WISCONSIN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 42%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%

The six polls conducted by the University of Wisconsin in Big Ten states also asked respondents how bad they thought their team would beat the Michigan Wolverines this year as they adjust to Coach Rich Rodriguez's spread offense, after their loss to Notre Dame (Average answer: 72 points).

The national polls have shown a tightening of the Presidential race in the last couple weeks with U.S. Sen. John McCain pulling even or ahead of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  However, if the last several elections have taught us anything, the outcome will be decided in the battleground states, not in national media polls.

Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have always been historically swing states; This year polls are suggesting that Virginia and to a lesser extent Georgia and North Carolina might also be competitive.

Over the next 6 weeks we will look at these races as the candidates, after two years and millions of dollars come towards the finish line neck and neck, with Obama leading 168 to 159 in the race to 270 electoral votes.

Today, polls in 6 states show the race tight but among those that Obama is leading, he increases his electoral vote lead from 9 to 31.

COLORADO (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

FLORIDA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 48%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

MICHIGAN (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.

OHIO (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 51%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 1%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%.

VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Others - 2%.

VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%, McKinney - 0%.

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

After these numbers are figured in, Senator Obama extends his lead to 215 to 184.

In recent days polls have come out in Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Dakota showing Senator Obama leading in those states and Senator McCain leading in Indiana; When factored in this brings the electoral equation to Obama 245 - McCain 189.

To armchair this yourself the Washington Post has a great calculator.  My map says Obama 308 - McCain 230. 

*John McCain seems to have locked up Alaska's three electoral votes with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Early August polling showed McCain 44% - Obama 39% with Lillehammer hero and native son Tommy Moe garnering 11% and singer songwriter Jewel trailing the field with 6%.  Today, Moe and Jewel are under the margin of error and McCain has opened up an 11 point lead. 

The Nielsen Company, famous for its tracking of all things media, released its results of Internet ratings from both conventions. The results tracked the Web buzz of speakers at both conventions during the respective weeks of their speeches. While Alaska Governor Sarah Palin made significant gains over the two weeks of the survey based on searches on ask.com of, "Who the hell is Sarah Palin," the presidential candidates remained the focus of Internet searches, with U.S. Sen. Barack Obama remaining the king of Internet buzz followed by U.S. Sen. John McCain. Sarah Palin came in third followed by U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Fred Thompson, who spoke at the Republican Convention, finished 16th on the list, but his results could have been slightly inflated due to Bravo showing Days of Thunder on the Wednesday night on which Fred plays the role of NASCAR commissioner "Big" John.

Nielsen also tracked visits to the candidates' official Web sites. During the Democratic Convention, BarackObama.com saw a 32% spike in traffic. During the same period, JohnMcCain.com saw a 242% increase in traffic after his announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate. Perhaps people were trying to figure out, "Who the hell is Sarah Palin?"

An interesting statistic that I hope Nielsen provides in the coming weeks is how many people visited BarackObama.com following Palin's speech at the Republican Convention. Interestingly, the Obama campaign reported raising $10 million in 24 hours following her scathing remarks.

Finally, The Nielsen survey looked at Google search ads purchased by the campaign. McCain stepped up his Web search presence with a nearly three-fold increase in image-based impressions in August.  During the same period, Obama's campaign cut their image-based impressions by 18%.  Some of the search phrases purchased by McCain's campaign include: Joe Biden, U.S. Economy, and Housing Crisis according to Silicon Valley Insider.

For more about Online Advertising, checkout NPI's 2008 New Tools Campaign paper, Advertise Online.

Jonathan Stein of Mother Jones blogs today on one of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's most important pieces of legislation - the Global Poverty Act. This bill would commit the United States to "the reduction of global poverty, the elimination of extreme global poverty, and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goal of reducing by one-half the proportion of people, between 1990 and 2015, who live on less than $1 per day."

Stein is a strong, and much needed, booster of the Global Poverty Act:

The bill, which has a bi-partisan list of co-sponsors, is a recipe for reintegration into the world community, which suggests Obama sees aid not just as charity but as part of his foreign policy vision.

In April, NDN endorsed the Global Poverty Act, which the U.S. House of Representatives passed last spring. U.S. Rep. Adam Smith wrote and introduced the House bill. In our letter, we encourage the Senate to pass Obama's bill. Although little hope for that remains this year, we remain committed to advancing this legislation because we believe that eradicating global poverty can help to stem the rise of terrorism, spread of disease, environmental destruction, and political instability. The United States lags behind other developed countries in our commitment to helping the poorest of the poor. And as Stein points out, a war on global poverty would cost far less than our current war on terror:

Those critics [of the bill] argue that boosting American aid to UN-approved levels would cost $845 billion over 13 years, meaning the apparently horrifying prospect of waging a global war on poverty that costs along the lines of the war in Iraq, which the Congressional Research Service estimates has cost $653 billion in the six years since its initiation. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Iraq War will cost an additional $440 billion over the next ten years, assuming troop levels fall to 30,000 by 2010.

We greatly urge Obama and his allies to talk up this important piece of legislation -- in Obama's platform at the Convention, in Congress, on the blogs, in the mainstream media, and so forth. Along the way and down the road, NDN will remain committed advocates of the Global Poverty Act and we hope to work with Pres. Obama to make it a reality.