Alaska

We've all heard that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin knows how to dispatch a moose with ruthless effectiveness, but what did this poor bear and crab do to deserve this? What's next? A collie?

That's all I'll say. Pictures are worth a thousand words.

No, the headline above is not a match.com entry for a lonely scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.  

Simon wrote last night about the surreal nature of U.S. Sen. John McCain's campaign in which reality has taken a back seat to fantastic claims that have no basis in truth. I've been through a lot of campaigns, but I am fascinated -- in a car wreck-kind-of-way -- by McCain and his campaign's willingness to make outlandish claims they know are ridiculous.  In an interview yesterday with a Portland, Maine, TV station (and neatly summed up by Politico's Jonathan Martin), McCain faced some unexpectedly tough questioning. And he came up with a real whopper.  Asked what specific national security credentials Palin had, McCain cited her experience dealing with energy issues and went so far as to say she was the country's foremost expert in the field.

"She knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America," McCain said. 

WHAT? Someone better let the fusion energy and carbon sequestration folks over at the U.S. Department of Energy know they've got competition. 

McCain then helpfully added that Alaska is next to Russia to round out Palin's foreign policy creds.

A new group of polls released in the last 48 hours give us a better picture of where the presidential campaign might go if the election were held today. As Simon suggests, the race has steadied.

ALASKA (Rasmussen): McCain - 64%, Obama - 33%.
MICHIGAN (CNN/Time): Obama - 45%, McCain - 42%, Nader - 6%, Barr - 2%, McKinney - 1%.
MICHIGAN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (CNN/Time): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 2%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/Time): Obama - 48%, McCain - 43%, Nader - 4%, Barr - 2%.
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Barr - 4%.
NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 55%, Obama - 41%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Others - 3%.
VIRGINIA (CNN/Time): McCain - 49%, Obama - 43%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 1%.
WEST VIRGINIA (WSAV-TV/MBE): McCain - 44%, Obama - 39%.
WISCONSIN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 46%, McCain - 43%, Others - 3%.
MONTANA (Rasmussen): McCain - 53%, Obama - 42%.
NEW JERSEY (Farleigh Dickinson Univ.): Obama - 47%, McCain - 41%, Others - 4%.
OKLAHOMA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 65%, Obama - 32%, Others - 1%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

Factoring in these polling numbers, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama grows his lead to 266-238 over U.S. Sen. John McCain, leaving him four electoral votes short of assuming the presidency, if the election were held today. Based on these data, Oregon and Florida will determine the next president. Oregon is the only swing state without recent polling, but it seems exceedingly likely to go for Obama. Florida, however, is a dead heat. To win the White House, McCain would need to win both Oregon and Florida; Obama need only win one of the two.

In most swing states, the race is within one or two points, leaving it easily inside the margin of error. Simply put: these states could go either way. If McCain were  to flip Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states where he is trailing by two or less points, he takes a 276-228 electoral majority.

If Obama were to flip New Mexico and Indiana, the two states he is trailing by two or less points, his electoral total would run to 282, 12 more than the necessary 270.

McCain's brilliant pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is already paying dividends: he has opened up a 31-point lead in delegate-rich (three) Alaska, 64-33 (100% sample).

My guess is that the McCain campaign never really vetted Governor Sarah Palin. For so long she was so unlikely a pick that whatever vett they did was not as serious as some of the other vetts. So when McCain did not get his first pick, Joe Lieberman - because it just became clear that the Right would go crazy - he had to quickly pick someone else. Angry that he had not gotten his way, and much to the dismay of his own team, he picks Sarah Palin. In a way that is very McCain, the maverick Arizona Senator called an audible and went with the telegenic, conservative, youthful "reformer" who could, in his mind, appeal to those Clinton voters. Sometimes when you go with your gut and not your head, you make the right call. Sometimes you don't.

All day I've been thinking about the McCain communications team responsible for the Palin announcement event. The lead staffer looks at the Palin daughter, with her bump, and says "what the hell is this?" The daughter goes up on stage with a baby and a blanket, in retrospect hiding the bump from the national media and the public. The key word here being "hiding." Was this also hidden from the staff? And who really knew? I can only imagine what happened when the staff started to realize that Palin had not really been vetted, that her daugher's pregnancy had been hidden from the public, and that there could be much more to come. McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt sounded like a bumbling high schooler when he was asked about all this on TV today. They seemed totally unprepared for all this all day long, allowing this wild story to dominate the first day of their Convention. I can't really believe the McCain senior staff knew about the pregnant daughter - and how is that possible? What a incredible contrast with the sure-footed Obama Convention and rollout of Joe Biden.

I end the day believing that this whole episode captures the essence of McCain - a maverick, a rebel, a political risk taker, but also a man capable of being mercurial, whimsical, careless, petulant, irresponsible. Traits that might make an interesting Senator but ones that could make for a truly risky or even dangerous Presidency.