McCain

With all of the McCain camp's attempts to link the Obama campaign with domestic terroroism, it has been found that Sen. John McCain has some radical supporters of his own. Mary Jacoby at the Wall Street Journal reported on McCain supporter, John Murtagh, a lawyer for a Catholic priest who led a violent protest on an abortion clinic.

Sen. McCain also has ties with Paul Schneck, a millitant anti-abortion activist who had private meetings with the Senator as far back as last year and was given a VIP pass to attend an event where McCain named Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

And coincidentally Sen. McCain has also repeatedly voted against bill that would protect women and abortion clinics from anti-choice terrorists such as Paul Schneck and those who John Murtagh defends.

Finally, most recently, Sen. McCain sat silently at an event while anti-choice extremist Marilyn Shannon lauded a women curently in jail for shooting a doctor who provided legal abortions.

As many of you know I've been using the polling aggregate and maps of Real Clear Politics as my baseline.  A new and interesting site, 538, takes a very tough look at their performance in the last few weeks. 

Earlier, Simon mentioned that he could look at the map on RCP all day, showing Obama/Biden 273 - McCain/Palin 265. However, polls released in 11 of the 12 swing states today show the race being within two points. U.S. Sen. John McCain holds a narrow margin in Ohio and is tied in two of the three Florida polls.

This week, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in New Mexico has taken a 7-point lead in McCain's backyard. However, polls in New Hampshire, which voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004, show McCain up three points. New Hampshire, which has been a historically strong state for McCain, could put a dent into the Democratic domination of the northeast if this margin holds.

COLORADO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%.
COLORADO (Insider Advantage): Obama - 51%, McCain - 41%, Others - 2%.
FLORIDA (National Journal/FD): Obama - 44%, McCain - 44%.
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 51%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
FLORIDA (ARG): Obama - 46%, McCain - 46%, Others - 3%.
INDIANA (Indianapolis Star/Selzer): Obama - 47%, McCain - 44%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 1%.
INDIANA (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 47%, Obama - 43%, Others - 2%.
MICHIGAN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 44%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%.
MINNESOTA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 45%, McCain - 43%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (ARG): McCain - 50%, Obama - 45%.
NEVADA (ARG): McCain - 49%, Obama - 46%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG): McCain - 48%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
NEW MEXICO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 49%, McCain - 42%.
NEW MEXICO (ARG): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
OHIO (National Journal): McCain - 42%, Obama - 41%.
OHIO (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 43%, Obama - 42%, Others - 2%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 43%, McCain - 42%, Others - 1%
WISCONSIN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 42%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%

The six polls conducted by the University of Wisconsin in Big Ten states also asked respondents how bad they thought their team would beat the Michigan Wolverines this year as they adjust to Coach Rich Rodriguez's spread offense, after their loss to Notre Dame (Average answer: 72 points).

The national polls have shown a tightening of the Presidential race in the last couple weeks with U.S. Sen. John McCain pulling even or ahead of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  However, if the last several elections have taught us anything, the outcome will be decided in the battleground states, not in national media polls.

Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have always been historically swing states; This year polls are suggesting that Virginia and to a lesser extent Georgia and North Carolina might also be competitive.

Over the next 6 weeks we will look at these races as the candidates, after two years and millions of dollars come towards the finish line neck and neck, with Obama leading 168 to 159 in the race to 270 electoral votes.

Today, polls in 6 states show the race tight but among those that Obama is leading, he increases his electoral vote lead from 9 to 31.

COLORADO (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

FLORIDA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 48%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

MICHIGAN (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.

OHIO (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 51%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 1%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%.

VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Others - 2%.

VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%, McKinney - 0%.

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

After these numbers are figured in, Senator Obama extends his lead to 215 to 184.

In recent days polls have come out in Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Dakota showing Senator Obama leading in those states and Senator McCain leading in Indiana; When factored in this brings the electoral equation to Obama 245 - McCain 189.

To armchair this yourself the Washington Post has a great calculator.  My map says Obama 308 - McCain 230. 

*John McCain seems to have locked up Alaska's three electoral votes with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Early August polling showed McCain 44% - Obama 39% with Lillehammer hero and native son Tommy Moe garnering 11% and singer songwriter Jewel trailing the field with 6%.  Today, Moe and Jewel are under the margin of error and McCain has opened up an 11 point lead. 

The Nielsen Company, famous for its tracking of all things media, released its results of Internet ratings from both conventions. The results tracked the Web buzz of speakers at both conventions during the respective weeks of their speeches. While Alaska Governor Sarah Palin made significant gains over the two weeks of the survey based on searches on ask.com of, "Who the hell is Sarah Palin," the presidential candidates remained the focus of Internet searches, with U.S. Sen. Barack Obama remaining the king of Internet buzz followed by U.S. Sen. John McCain. Sarah Palin came in third followed by U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Fred Thompson, who spoke at the Republican Convention, finished 16th on the list, but his results could have been slightly inflated due to Bravo showing Days of Thunder on the Wednesday night on which Fred plays the role of NASCAR commissioner "Big" John.

Nielsen also tracked visits to the candidates' official Web sites. During the Democratic Convention, BarackObama.com saw a 32% spike in traffic. During the same period, JohnMcCain.com saw a 242% increase in traffic after his announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate. Perhaps people were trying to figure out, "Who the hell is Sarah Palin?"

An interesting statistic that I hope Nielsen provides in the coming weeks is how many people visited BarackObama.com following Palin's speech at the Republican Convention. Interestingly, the Obama campaign reported raising $10 million in 24 hours following her scathing remarks.

Finally, The Nielsen survey looked at Google search ads purchased by the campaign. McCain stepped up his Web search presence with a nearly three-fold increase in image-based impressions in August.  During the same period, Obama's campaign cut their image-based impressions by 18%.  Some of the search phrases purchased by McCain's campaign include: Joe Biden, U.S. Economy, and Housing Crisis according to Silicon Valley Insider.

For more about Online Advertising, checkout NPI's 2008 New Tools Campaign paper, Advertise Online.