Key 2008

NDN is proud to host the Honorable Luis Alberto Moreno, President of the Inter-American Development Bank and former Ambassador of Colombia to the United States, to discuss "The Current Economic Crisis and Its Impact on Latin America." This briefing will take place on Thursday, December 11, at 3 p.m. at NDN, 729 15th St., NW, 1st Floor.

Please RSVP as soon as possible. The event is open, but space is limited. Refreshments will be served. Please visit our Web site to view past events with the Ambassadors of Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and the Vice President of Panama.

Updates from our last report on the Elections and Immigration: Georgia's Senate Race just two weeks away - The runoff election will take place on December 2 and early the voting period began on Monday in many of the state's counties. Saxby Chambliss and Rep. Jim Martin - the Democratic challenger - are battling voter fatigue, they have to persuade supporters to come out again to vote. A Democratic win in Georgia would be yet another severe blow to the GOP in a state considered a stronghold for them. For immigration advocates, a win by pro-CIR Jim Martin would mean another win for those of us working for immigration reform.

Begich Defeats Convicted Sen. Ted Stevens in Alaska - Senator-elect Begich (D) defeated Stevens by 3,724 votes, a margin of more than 1 percentage point, putting Democrats closer to the 60 seat mark in the Senate. While Stevens has conceded this election, in Minnesota the candidates are still fighting in out. Election officials began a recount yesterday in the race between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken. So far Coleman leads Franken by 216 votes out of 2.9 million cast.

Obama picks scholars to develop immigration plan - Alexander Aleinikoff, Dean of the Georgetown University Law Center, and Mariano Florentino Cuellar, professor at Stanford Law School will lead the policy working group designated for immigration. Click here to read some articles by Dean Aleinikoff, and here to read more about Florentino Cuellar. In addition, it's looking more and more like Gov. Janet Napolitano will take on the important position of DHS Secretary. In the meantime, Julie Myers is officially no longer at ICE, and John Torres will take the helm through the end of this administration. And according to Adfero Group, these are the 10 most important jobs to be filled at ICE.

New Bedford Factory Targeted in Raid to pay $850,000 in overtime - The owners of the factory settled a class action lawsuit this week, agreeing to pay 764 current and former workers $850,000 owed in overtime.

The Texas GOP just doesn't get it - the Texas State Legislature will see several bills related to illegal immigration this session - "Advocates for a crackdown on illegal immigrants, apparently undaunted by their failures in the last Legislature, have filed a slew of bills for the upcoming session that are even stronger in tone and approach." The GOP is allegedly panicked about their lack of support among Hispanics, but Texas Republican legislators don't seem to get it. The bills go beyond the usual, one is for English-only, another would require public schools to check the citizenship of their students. Another would require illegal immigrants to be banished to self-described "sanctuary cities." Author Leo Berman, R-Tyler said, "The federal government is requiring us to give free education and health care to illegals," Mr. Berman said. "It's the largest unfunded mandate in the history of our nation." Another bill filed for the 2009 session allows police to check people's immigration status under "reasonable suspicion" that they might be illegal immigrants - really. Another refuses birth certificates to children born in the U.S. to parents who are here illegally.

On the flip side, a bill by Rep. Roberto Alonzo, D-Dallas, prohibits cities from restricting landlords on who can rent homes from them - a direct criticism of Farmers Branch's efforts to keep illegal immigrants from renting homes there. Another bill would create a task force to fight human trafficking. "The reality is that these problems can only be solved in Washington, D.C.," said Rep. Rafael Anchía, D-Dallas. "Even if every immigration-related bill passed in the Texas House, it would be wholly ineffective at dealing with the larger issue of how we align our immigration policy with the needs of our labor force. And that's what's driving illegal immigration." I wholeheartedly agree - and so far I've heard many doubts as to whether immigration reform will even be addressed by the 111th Congress.

Will Reform Happen in 2009? - Well, Congress should do so - after the 2006 midterm elections two years ago, congressional job approval was 26%. In this week's Gallup poll, Congressional approval is now at at 19%, with a 74% disapproval rating. Polling data consistently shows that immigration is not the third rail of politics - it's not that people are against reform, if you take the time to ask, people are against the broken immigration system and they want it fixed. Two-thirds of all voters support a comprehensive approach to immigration reform. Patience is not a virtue when it comes to immigration reform - how much longer can we wait? Obama is facing pressure from immigration advocates and from voters, particularly mixed-status families, to pass reform. Many articles posit that Latinos "may" question Obama on immigration - I disagree, Latinos will question Obama on immigration.

As reported by La Jornada, "the Latino vote is not a blank check...it represents the aspiration for change, social and economic justice for Latinos." Hopefully President Obama will work with Congress to fix our very broken immigration system, and fight against the few who confuse reform for "open borders." The Americas Policy Program attempted to explain how the two camps are "retrenching" on the issue of immigration reform, but their explanation merits comment - their article argues that opponents of reform argue that CIR can't happen during a time of economic downturn for fear "we'll lose jobs." The unemployment rate has increased for many reasons that have nothing to do with immigration policy.  All data demonstrates that undocumented immigrants perform jobs that Americans don't want, and by legalizing those without papers, we would be bringing them out of the shadows and improving wages for all, thus increasing wages across the board and fostering a more productive consumer base. The economic crisis is no argument against reform, if anything, CIR can be used as a tool to help improve the economy. The article says proponents of reform are arguing that the new administration "owes" the Hispanic/Latino electorate, i.e., they should pass it because we want it. Not really - while the Democratic party can certainly expect a backlash at the polls for not fixing the broken immigration system, it will come not only from Latinos, but from all the voters who currently feel Congress has not delivered solutions. Yes, Hispanic voters will be watching to see whether Obama "keeps all his promises," and you can bet he won't feel the love next time at the polls if he does not, but CIR shouldn't pass just because Latinos want it, it should be passed because from a policy and a political standpoint, the right and the best thing to do is to pass it in 2009.

Instances of Mistreatment of Children under CPB and ICE custody - A study released by the Center for Public Policy Priorities (CPPP) found that more than 43,000 undocumented, unaccompanied children have been mistreated while in custody and denied access to representation by Customs and Border Protection (Border Patrol) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and then transported home unsafely. The story was also reported by Latin American press, with reports of children being caged, neglected, and denied medical care.

Decorated immigration agent arrested on crystal meth charges.

Read the signs - A CQ article from this week makes some good points, but slightly misread the polling data from Lake Research, saying the issue of immigration has "cooled" - hardly. As Hispanics are being attacked and ostracized throughout the country, a more accurate point in the story that should be highlighted: "Hispanics could blame Democrats for immigration inertia, or feel that implicit campaign pledges weren't honored." A post-election poll by Lake Research Partners for America's Voice found that Hispanics turned their backs on the GOP - even though President Bush and Sen. John McCain , R-Ariz., both favored comprehensive legislation - because of perceptions that Republicans blocked the immigration overhaul in 2007 and used inflammatory rhetoric in the process. And Hispanics will only continue to determine candidates' political fate based on this important issue, as Robert Paral and Associates have reported - the 2008 election results demonstrate that, "even in states where the Hispanic community is relatively small, they can tip those states, they can be kingmakers if the other groups are evenly balanced." Paral expects the Hispanic vote to be the pivotal swing in future elections too, as more Hispanics register to vote, not only in traditional immigrant-receiving states, but also in states with fewer immigrants, such as New Hampshire, Connecticut, Oregon and Pennsylvania.

E-Verify not Ready for Prime Time - According to the ITAA, the final rule published this week requiring federal contractors and subcontractors to screen workers and new hires through the E-Verify system each year will put significant new burdens on those employers at least in the short term.

Immigration authorities need to release the guidelines they use in deciding 'stipulated removal' cases - In the last few years, the number of illegal immigrants in detention who waived their right to plead their case to remain in the United States has shot up from 5,500 in 2004 to 35,000 this year. In all, nearly 100,000 people have agreed to leave the country under "stipulated removal." Not surprisingly, troubling reports have surfaced of immigrants who say they were encouraged to self-deport without knowing that they had valid legal claims to remain in the U.S. and to have a hearing before a judge. Immigrants' rights groups are suing the Department of Homeland Security and other federal agencies, demanding they divulge their procedures for informing detainees of their rights. The department, which has made only half-hearted attempts to comply, should be made to do so.

Querétaro, Mexico gets appropriation for immigrants - The lower chamber of the Mexican Congress approved 704 million pesos to support immigrants returning to 10 states of the country, 50 million of this sum will go to the state of Querétaro.

Oberlin, OH considering becoming sanctuary city.

UN Trade Chief sees up to 6 percent drop in migrant remittances in 2009 - Migrant remittances, a vital source of income for poor countries, could decline by up to 6 percent next year due to worsening economic conditions around the world, the U.N.'s trade chief said last Friday.

Words Have Consequences - Click to read our coverage of hate crimes. Most recently, the death of Ecuadorian immigrant, Marcelo Lucero.

Tomorrow, America's Voice will release more detailed information on races in which the immigration debate took a prominent role, and how that affected candidates. In the meantime, how might the Democratic gains in the House and Senate affect the likelihood for comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) in 2009? Democrats have a 259-176 majority in the House and 57-40 in the Senate, pending the outcome of a few close races. Of all the Senators who voted for the cloture motion in the Senate, we lost Sen. Biden (D), Sen. Craig (R), and Sen. Hagel (R) - we can expect that the Governor of Delaware will appoint another CIR-friendly Senator - Craig has been succeeded by Jim Risch (R) and Hagel by Mike Johanns (R), both anti CIR. Luckily, there are gains for CIR in the Senate with the loss of anti CIR Senators: Elizabeth Dole (R) and Gordon Smith (R), and the retirement of John Warner (R). With the loss of Sen. Smith to Jeff Merkley (D), both Oregon Senators are now pro-CIR democrats. At least 5 pro-CIR candidates defeated anti-CIR advocates, turning Senate seats around. However, immigration reform will most likely begin in the House this time. There are several House races where pro-CIR Democrats defeated anti-CIR Republicans (click on the candidates to see their stance), that we would like to highlight:

Virginia 2 - Of note, Glenn Nye (D), defeated the fervently anti-CIR Thelma Drake (R) after her 2 terms in Congress. Nye has said that he won't support "amnesty for those who have jumped the line," but since comprehensive immigration reform doesn't call for amnesty, but rather for legalization of the undocumented and placing them at the end of the line of those already waiting for citizenship, his position should not differ from CIR advocates.

Virginia 5 - Tom Pereillo (D) has defeated very anti-immigrant Virgil Goode (R) in a close election, 50%-49%.

Virginia 11 - For Tom Davis's open seat, Gerry Connolly (D) defeated Keith Fimian (R) 53%-45%.

The Republican losses in Virginia serve as proof that anti-immigrant rhetoric does not pay. The Republican-held Virginia State Assembly has spent the last few years concentrating much of its energy on demonizing immigrants and Hispanics, and the Republicans who lost these seats had been major proponents of this strategy and fighters against a solution to the broken immigration system - clearly, there is a price to pay for hate-mongering and for inaction on immigration reform.

Oregon 5 - Rep. Darlene Hooley, a member of the New Dem Caucus, left an open seat and pro-CIR Kurt Shrader (D) defeated Mike Erickson (R) 56%-37% to succeed her.

Connecticut 4 - Jim Himes (D), who was actually born in Peru and lived in Peru and Colombia for the first 10 years of his life and still speaks fluent Spanish, defeated Republican incumbent Chris Shays (R), 51%-48%.

Arizona 1 - Ann Kirkpatrick (D) defeated Sydney Hay (R) for Rep. Rick Renzi's open seat 56% - 40%.

New Mexico 3 - Ben Lujan (D), another Latino joins the House Democrats after defeating Dan East (R), 54%-32%.

New Mexico 2 - Harry Teague (D) defeated Ed Tinsley (R) 55%-45% for Rep. Pearce's open seat.

Colorado 2 - Jared Polis (D), CIR advocate, defeated Scott Starin 62%-34%.

Colorado 4 - Another interesting win for Democrats, Betsey Markey (D) defeated incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R) 56%-44% .

Nevada 3 - Dina Titus(D) ousted incumbent Jon Porter (R), 55%-43%, in this district with a large and growing immigrant population, not to mention the district represents part of a county that contains the large share of the state's total population (Clark County). Titus is for CIR and the DREAM Act.

New York 29 - After 2 terms in Congress, Randy Kuhl (R) was defeated by pro-CIR Eric Massa (D).

Idaho 1 - Incumbent Bill Sali (R) was defeated after 1 term by Walter "Walt" Minnick (D).

Other House Races of Note: In these races, the Dem candidate has defeated the Republican, however, we remain uncertain as to the winner's stance on immigration.

Pennsylvania 11 - Again, hate mongering doesn't pay: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) won his bid for re-election against former Mayor of Hazelton, PA, Lou Barletta (R). While Kanjorski is not exactly a CIR advocate, we can count our blessings that Barletta, who did not miss an opportunity to verbally attack Hispanics and immigrants and who worked to vilify immigrants in their own community, lost this race 52%-48%.

Pennsylvania 3 - Kathy Dahlkemper (D), small business-owner and the first woman elected to Congress from her district, defeated incumbent Rep. Phil English (R), who was very much anti-CIR.

North Carolina 8 - Rep. Robin Hayes (R ) was defeated by challenger Larry Kissell (D).

Ohio 1 - Incumbent Steve Chabot R) was defeated by Steve Driehouse (D), who seems to be for increased enforcement.

Florida 8 - Alan Grayson (D) defeated incumbent Ric Keller (R).

Michigan 7 - Mark Schauer (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Tim Walberg (R).

Senate Races Where CIR Democrat defeated Enforcement-only Republican:
NC - Kay Hagan (D) v. Incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R), 53%-44%.

CO - Sen. Allard's open seat, Mark Udall (D) v. Bob Schaffer (R) 52%-43%.

NH - Jeanne Shaheen (D) defeated incumbent John Sununu (R), 52%-45%.

VA - Mark Warner (D) defeated Jim Gilmore (R) for John Warner's open seat, 64%-35%.

NM - For Sen. Domenici's open seat (R), Tom Udall (D) defeated Steve Pearce (R), 61%-39%.

Races where CIR Democrat has challenged enforcement-only Republican and results are not final:

AK - Incumbent Ted Stevens (R) v. Mark Begich (D); race too close to call. UPDATE 11/13/08: This morning Begich was declared ahead by about 800 hundred votes, but the count continues.

MN - Incumbent Sen. Coleman v. Al Franken; race too close to call and we hear both campaigns are lawyering up for a battle.

GA - Incumbent Sen. Chambliss (R), who was a loud voice anti-reform in 2007 threatens to return to the Senate. Luckily, the race against Jim Martin (D) is still too close to call. However, we hear that after a challenge against the citizenship of voters in Georgia, around 5,000 ballots were thrown out and not counted. At the same time, Chambliss has allegedly raised an additional $1 million for this race and has called in all the big guns: Sen. McCain, Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich and Giuliani to campaign with him in Georgia before the Dec. 2 run-off election. Martin is good on immigration, so supporters of CIR should remain focused on this race.

California 4: In the race to succeed Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle , Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock continues to open a lead, as of the latest totals totals, McClintock led by 451 votes in California's 4th District race. However, pro-CIR Democrats have a majority of the CA delegation, with 34 House seats, to 18 held by enforcement-only Republicans.

Louisiana 2: Nine-term Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson is awaiting trial on federal corruption charges, but he is still heavily favored to defeat Republican lawyer Joseph Cao in a black-majority, heavily Democratic swath of southeastern Louisiana that includes the bulk of New Orleans.

Maryland 1: State Sen. Andy Harris, who defeated longtime Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest in the Republican primary, trails Democratic county prosecutor Frank M. Kratovil Jr.

Ohio 15. Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, a county commissioner in Columbus, by 321 votes, with thousands of provisional votes to be counted.

Washington 8: In suburban Seattle, slow tabulating means a rematch race between two-term Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Darcy Burner. Reichert's lead has grown to 4% with 90% of precincts counted.

Simon posted this statement yesterday, following an exchange on "Meet the Press" during which U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) essentially admitted that his party had scapegoated Hispanics during the immigration debate. Today, NDN released a statement about the massive damage the GOP has done to its brand among Latinos:

On this Sunday's "Meet the Press," Tom Brokaw asked former RNC Chairman, U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL), about whether the collapse of the Republican brand in the Hispanic community will relegate his party to minority status. From the transcript: 

MR. BROKAW: Senator Martinez, as you know, politics is about keeping score. I know this is tough for you to hear, probably, but you were 0-for-3 last Tuesday. You're a Republican; you are from Florida, that went to the Democrats; and you're Hispanic, or Latino in some parts of this country, and the Hispanics went overwhelmingly for the Democrats this time. Jill Lawrence wrote in USA Today: "If the Republicans don't make their peace with Hispanic voters, they're not going to win presidential elections anymore. The math just isn't there." That's according to Simon Rosenberg, head of the NDN, a Democratic group that studies Hispanic voters. How do you get back to the Hispanics?

SEN. MARTINEZ: Governor Jeb Bush -- former Governor Jeb Bush last week made a comment that if Republicans don't figure it out and do the math that we're going to be relegated to minority status. I've been preaching this for a long time to my colleagues within my party. I think that the very divisive rhetoric of the immigration debate set a very bad tone for our brand as Republicans. The fact of the matter is I think in Florida there was not a great ideological shift, but I think there was plenty of room for improvement in how that state was looked upon.

The fact of the matter is that Hispanics are going to be a more and more vibrant part of the electorate, and the Republican Party had better figure out how to talk to them. We had a very dramatic shift between what President Bush was able to do with Hispanic voters, where he won 44 percent of them, and what happened to Senator McCain. Senator McCain did not deserve what he got. He was one of those that valiantly fought, fought for immigration reform, but there were voices within our party, frankly, which if they continue with that kind of rhetoric, anti-Hispanic rhetoric, that so much of it was heard, we're going to be relegated to minority status.

"Senator Martinez’s comments are right on. If the national Republican Party continues their systemic demonization of Hispanics in the United States they should expect to be a minority Party for a very long time," said NDN’s President, Simon Rosenberg. "Just as in signing the Voting Rights Act, Lyndon Johnson turned the South and political control over the to the Republicans, the Tancredo-inspired GOP’s treatment of Hispanics may be turning over the new map of the 21st century to the Democrats.

There can be no doubt now that the GOP's handling of the immigration issue has been one of the greatest mistakes in the last 50 years of American politics. Our advice to the GOP is to sue for peace, and work with the Democrats to pass comprehensive immigration reform in 2009." As Peter Wallsten wrote in yesterday's Los Angeles Times, this failure with Hispanics may have cost the Republicans four prominent states in this election, and may even cost them Arizona and Texas in the coming years. If that comes about, it is game over, lights out for the GOP in the Electoral College for a very long time. Click here for Jill Lawrence's recent piece in USA Today mentioned by Brokaw, and here for NDN’s landmark study, Hispanics Rising II, which lays out this argument, along with electoral maps, in greater detail (Senator Martinez makes a guest appearance on page 30 of the report).

Also, check out polling by Sergio Bendixen released by NDN on September 10 that show overwhelming public support for comprehensive immigration reform in the key battleground states of CO, FL, NM and NV.

On this Sunday's meet the press, Senator Mel Martinez acknowledged that the way the national Republican Party has demonized Hispanics these past few years may make it in impossible for their Party to win Presidential elections for years to come. MTP quoted NDN and Simon, "If the Republicans don't make their peace with Hispanic voters, they're not going to win presidential elections anymore. The math just isn't there." This back and forth has now put tremendous public pressure on the GOP to turn around the full-on condemnation of their party among Hispanics. The GOP could help itself avoid political annihilation by abandoning the stance seen by many as a level of racial intolerance unacceptable in a new age of Obama, and by working with President-elect Obama to pass comprehensive immigration reform ASAP. This moment may really be a game-changer for both parties.

Let's not forget, Obama's victory among Hispanics may still be short-lived if he does not follow through on his promises to this community - as stated by Dan Schnur, Republican strategist: "Candidates don't cause realignments, presidents do. Candidate Obama has certainly created the conditions for potential realignment, but it's going to be up to President Obama to govern in a way that can make that happen." And that means passing immigration reform during his first year. Hispanics are not forgetting about his promise - on this Sunday's Al Punto, Jorge Ramos asked all his guests about the prospects of immigration reform. He asked Sen. Bob Menendez (NJ): Will [Obama] fulfill the promise he's made to Hispanics to pass immigration reform? Polls show that people care about the economy, education, etc. but the issue of immigration is still at the forefront for the Hispanic community....This is a big promise, how will he do it? Sen. Menendez responded that Barack Obama has remained steadfast on immigration since his votes for reform last summer. 

Rep. Luis Gutierrez was also asked and noted, "Barack Obama owes his victory to the large Hispanic turnout," as Obama invested more resources in reaching out to this community than Kerry and Bush together in 2004. When asked, "Can he fulfill this promise, or is it just rhetoric?" Luis Gutierrez reported that he has already spoken to Obama staff and that he is already working to strategize how to move on immigration reform, "It's really important to fulfill those promises," that's why on November 15 Rep. Gutierrez is holding a rally and inviting all U.S. citizens who know of undocumented persons to demand action - "We have to continue putting pressure on the administration." And Republican Mario Diaz-Balart agreed, although he opposes Sen. Obama's stance on Cuba policy, etc., he agreed to work to pass immigration reform alongside Rep. Gutierrez.

An article in the Politico today discusses how all "Dem groups" are claiming the win for Barack Obama - the truth is that while Hispanics are still not a "Dem" group, it is undeniable that it was Hispanics - the ultimate swing electorate - who delivered key battleground states like IN, NM, and FL for Barack Obama, and allowed for a sizeable lead in CO and NV due to their numbers in those states and because they held record shares of the electorate. "Without the Latino vote, we would not have won those states," said Federico Pena, national co-chairman of the Obama campaign. And Hispanics were also influential in Obama's victory in Virginia and North Carolina.

For their part, Republicans must decide how to become part of the 21^st century if their party is to survive. The immigrant-issues coalition is expanding to include other ethnicities. Mercury News reports, this election was not only an appreciation for Obama's multicultural upbringing, but also a rejection of the Republican-led "demonization" of immigrants, particularly of Hispanic and Muslim backgrounds, in recent years. John McCain could help his party in this regard, at least alleviating some of the strongest negative feelings towards the Republican Party by supporting comprehensive immigration reform in 2009.  Beto Cardenas, former counsel to Kay Bailey Hutchinson: "When we have laws that make it easier to get that labor legally, it will be easier to enforce the laws. Such reform could also protect the rights of the workers, who too frequently are subject to exploitation because they are afraid to report abuses...I think there's a will to address the issue if it can be shown it enhances the economic health of the country," he said.

This election had important results for immigration issues, not just because of the individuals elected, but because of the ballot measures passed or rejected:

1) Proposition 202 in Arizona, which would have risked extreme penalties for businesses by linking employee immigration status to their business license, failed: 59.2% No, to 40.8% Yes. It was called, "a racist proposition that should not be enacted because the U.S. can't get a responsible solution to the broken immigration system." UPDATE: In response to my reader's comment, first - please be assured that NDN will never comment on policy without having full understanding of an issue. Second, Prop 202 would have made individuals involved in the hiring process accountable for hiring undocumented immigrants, which many businesses supported because it would liberate them from the responsibility of checking work authorization and pass it on to their HR employees (or employee). It has been called a racist proposition because as with the current flawed electronic employer verification system, there is a potential for misuse, "screening" prospective employees even before they're hired, which would only be more likely to happen if an individual bears the full responsibility of checking status and faces fines or criminal charges for potential violations. The bottom line is that at NDN we agree that propositions like these are not a solution, the U.S. needs a responsible solution to the broken immigraton system at the federal level, since states have no authority to change federal immigration law.

2) In Missouri, a proposition making English the official language in all government activities passed, 85.8% Yes, to 14.2% No. Clearly, people don't understand the consequences of making English an "official language," does this mean that state hospitals won't provide for translation if necessary when they get a patient that is less than proficient in English? Or that Court's in their daily business won't need to provide a translator to the accused so that he/she understands the charges against them? Yes, and yes. Clearly we still have more to do when it comes to "social progress..."

3) In Nebraska, a ballot measure prohibiting affirmative action in state institutions passed.

4) In Florida, an initiative intended to end a legacy of bias against Asian-Americans was defeated Tuesday, apparently because voters incorrectly assumed it would prevent illegal immigrants from owning property. Had it passed, the initiative, known as Amendment No. 1, would have removed from the state's Constitution language adopted in 1926 allowing the Legislature to prohibit foreigners who were barred from citizenship - Asian-Americans at the time - from owning land. No such legislation was ever enacted here, and every other state that had such laws has scrapped them on grounds of equal protection. But Florida's effort to delete the provision failed with 52% No and 48% voting Yes.

5) "Demography is Destiny" - Pat Buchanan finally recognizes the importance of the Hispanic community, but just when you think we've made progress, just when I thought Buchanan was finally the wiser and about to give his party sage advice, he followed up with a statement that shows his complete ignorance of the Hispanic community. He thinks Hispanics voted for Obama because, "They look to government," and "the idea of small government doesn't appeal to them." Are you kidding,me? Native-born Hispanics most certainly don't fall into this category as they largely sided with the Republican party, until the GOP decided to go on the attack against them for fear they might not be "legal." And foreign born Hispanics have come to this country largely because of their distrust of government! Latin American governments have been known for corruption and scandal, which has caused a very deeply rooted mistrust of government and politicians among foreign-born Hispanics, in general. So I say no Pat, Hispanics do not want handouts, they want a government who is a partner, not a parent. If you ask them, large government scares most Latinos, while the idea of small government does appeal to them (the opposite of what Pat says in this video). And I'm shocked by Joe Scarborough, saying that Latinos will come around once they "understand working hard"....really? I take it Joe hasn't been out on the tomato and orange fields in Florida,and he must not go to restaurants or hotels, and he must not have walked around South Florida and noticed that the engine of that economy is made up of Latino-owned businesses. No, Hispanics didn't vote for Barack Obama because they're "socialist" or "liberals," they voted for him precisely because of the ignorance shown by these two Republicans, and reflected by the GOP brand. They voted for the Democratic Party because that party has not insulted all Hispanics, ubiquitously questioning their very right to be in this country. Latinos resent that racial profile, that is why they didn't vote for Sen. McCain. But you are right Pat, demography is destiny, so the GOP has a lot of soul-searching to do.

6) Immigration to Go Paperless - The Washington Post Reports:

The Bush administration has launched a major overhaul of the nation's immigration services agency, selecting an industry consortium led by IBM to reinvent how the government handles about 7 million applications each year for visas, citizenship and approval to work in the United States, officials announced yesterday. If successful, the five-year, $500 million effort would convert U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services'case-management system from paper-based to electronic, which could reduce backlogs and processing delays by at least 20%, and possibly more than 50%. The new system would allow government agencies, from the Border Patrol to the FBI to the Labor Department, to access immigration records faster and more accurately. In combination with initiatives to link digital fingerprint scans to unique identification numbers, it would create a lifelong digital record for applicants. It also would eliminate the need for time- and labor-intensive filing and refiling of paper forms, which are currently stored at 200 locations in 70 million manila file folders.

7) Bye-bye Ms. American Pie - Julie Myers, Assistant Secretary for Immigration and Customs Enforcement(ICE) has resigned and will be leaving her post on November 15. She has been a controversial figure since the day that President Bush nominated her, possessing almost no immigration or customs experience. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, Chair of the House Subcommittee on Immigration and career immigration lawyer spoke of Ms. Myers's lack of qualifications as a major issue during our forum on immigration: "This is the worst administration I've ever seen, starting at the top of ICE...I served with Jim Sensenbrenner, one thing Jim was insistent on was that there be competent people in the job....you had to know something about immigration law, that you had to have managed a large organization...instead, we had Julie Myers, appointed at age 36, she held a variety of jobs, never managed more than one or two people," so Rep. Lofgren believes that, no doubt, an important qualification of hers might have been that she worked for Ken Starr, and that her uncle is Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, former Chair of the Joint Chiefs - oh, and her husband, John F. Wood, also served as Chief of Staff to Secretary Chertoff. This lack of expertise has caused ICE to "be run in a way that has elicited condemnation, the lack of qualification has become apparent." During her tenure, ICE was heavily criticized for carrying out politically-motivated immigration raids, for having unacceptable conditions in detainee centers that caused the death of who knows how many detainees who were denied care, and most recently the Department as been resistant to Rep. Lofgren and Sen. Menendez's legislation to quantify basic medical health standards, and there has been a clear degradation of due process under her watch. What bothers Rep. Lofgren the most is that "they also just don't same to care."

In September, the Pew Hispanic Center's report on the overall state of Latinos found that Latinos were in a significantly worse economic condition and reported a decline in their general well-being. We have continued to see how the economic crisis is hitting Latinos particularly harshly, and today we find that the unemployment rate for Latinos has sky-rocketed to 8.8% in October. The overall national unemployment rate for October reported today is 6.5%, with 240,000 jobs cut during the month. Hispanics have been particularly affected, as the number of unemployed Hispanics went up in September to 1.72 million, and in October Hispanics comprised 1.96 million of the 10 million people unemployed nationally.

As noted by Dan, NDN's narrative has been shaping analysis of the election, not only in the U.S., but in Mexico and elsewhere. The newspaper of largest circulation in Mexico (along with Reforma), El Universal, has followed NDN's analysis of the Hispanic vote in this election. In June, Alejandro Meneses published a piece on NDN's findings, contained in Hispanics Rising, and on Andres's analysis of the role of immigration in this election. In September, Jaime Hernandez wrote about the candidates' courtship of Hispanics and noted Simon's point that "John McCain gave in to the right wing of his party and abandoned support of his own [immigration] legislation." Jaime also cited our analysis and projections in late October. Finally, Wilbert Torreenviado of El Universal, and Mauricio Ferrer of La Jornada (another major national newspaper) have both published NDN's preliminary analysis of the Hispanic Vote and reported our narrative of Obama's new 21st century coalition and the new generation of politics that has been born with this campaign.

As President-elect Barack Obama turns to the enormous challenges facing the nation, his first priority will be to set his priorities. Already, there are more urgent problems than any president could tackle successfully in a single term, and even more will almost certainly emerge. Moreover, he now will have to lead in ways he did not have to as candidate, by taking real and contentious actions. His historic, landslide election will give him greater, initial political capital than any president since Ronald Reagan. Even so, capital gets spent, and a president’s power and influence are finite, so he will have to choose precisely where he intends to focus all that capital, power and influence.

The lead items on his domestic agenda must be the nation’s financial and economic crisis. That will require, first, steps to slow housing foreclosures. He has pledged to initiate a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures, but that would be only a first, modest step. He also could also create a new fund to lend tide-over funds to homeowners facing foreclosure after the 90 days are up, and while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac work out a responsible plan for them to renegotiate the terms and interest rates on the mortgages of homeowners in distress. He also can help banks get credit flowing again with a temporary, reduced tax rate on an estimated $700 billion in profits now held abroad by the foreign subsidiaries of American companies.

That step also could provide a measure of stimulus for an economy currently entering what is likely to be a long, nasty recession, and addressing the recession also must be one of President Obama’s first priorities. Tax rebates won’t work, since most Americans would most likely save any new checks rather than spend them. So Washington will have to jumpstart the nation’s additional spending, with a new spending package of $200 billion to $250 billion. And President Obama should focus most of it on the long-term investments he called for during the campaign, including grants to digitize health care records and provide access to computer training for current workers, and new supports to modernize the electricity grid and accelerate the development and spread of alternative energy. On top of that – and grants to cash-strapped states so they can avoid large cuts in their Medicaid programs and their workforces – the new president should focus the infrastructure piece of his stimulus on creating a national infrastructure financing bank and initiating new commitments for low-polluting light rail systems in major metropolitan areas.

The president will also hear demands and pleas for a new regulatory framework for the financial sector. That task is clearly a necessary and urgent one, but getting it right will be a long, complex process. His best move would be to create a national, expert commission with a mandate to figure it out over the next six months and report back to the nation.

The president’s serious priority-setting can only really begin once he addresses those emergencies – and it won’t be easy. The stimulus measures can be the first steps toward meeting his pledge to help build a more energy-efficient and climate-friendly economy. And since he will have to choose, the rest of that agenda should probably take lower priority than health care reform. One reason is that while the recession will cut energy prices and energy use with no help from Washington, for at least a time, it will only worsen out health care problems. The recession will further increase the numbers of people without coverage, perhaps by millions, without making a dent in the steady, sharp increases in health care costs that will continue to cut into jobs and wages. And any further delay will only make it all worse. It’s time to carry out his plans to make coverage much more nearly universal, and tie those extensions to a hard-nosed program of cost controls that will require hospitals and clinics to adopt the best practices of the country’s most cost efficient medical centers.

This will leave President Obama with plenty to tackle in the second half of his term. That can be the time to take further steps to help make America more climate friendly and energy efficient. It also has to be the time to build on the cost-control lessons from health care reform and finally address the serious and treacherous business of reforming Medicare and other entitlement spending for tens of millions of Baby Boomers.

And if President Obama can make real progress in these priority areas over his first term, it will almost certainly earn him an even bigger national landslide for a second term. 

Last January, on the morning after the Iowa caucuses, I published the essay you see below: "On Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy." Moved by Senator Obama's incredible speech the night of the caucuses, I spent a great deal of time that morning thinking about what his rise meant for our politics and our nation. I came away believing then, as I do now, that his powerful voice that emerged that night had the potential to have a profound impact on America.

On Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy

For the past several years NDN has been making an argument that for progressives to succeed in the coming century they would have to build a new majority coalition very different from the one FDR built in the 20th century. The nation has changed a great deal since the mid-20th century, as we’ve become more Southern and Western, suburban and exurban, Hispanic and Asian, immigrant and Spanish-speaking, more millennial and aging boomer and more digital age in our life and work habits than industrial age. 21st century progressive success would require building our politics around these new demographic realities.

Looking at the leadership of the Democratic Party today, there is cause for optimism on this score. The four leading Presidential candidates includes a mixed race Senator of African descent, an accomplished and powerful woman, a border state governor of Mexican descent and a populist from the new South. Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi represent areas west of the Rockies. Taken together these leaders represent a very different kind of politics, a 21st century politics, for the Democrats.

But of all these great changes the one that may be most important today is the growth of what we call the “minority” population. When I was born in 1963 the country was almost 89 percent white, 10.5 percent African-American and less than 1 percent other. The racial construct of America was, and had been for over hundreds of years, a white-black, majority-minority construct, and for most of our history had been a pernicious and exploitive one. Of course the Civil Rights Movement (particularly the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act) began to change our understanding of race around the time of my birth, but it was the Immigration Act of 1965 that changed the face of America. That act changed who would enter America, reorienting our new immigrant pool from Europe, as it had been for over 300 years, to Latin America and Asia. And America changed.

As the chart below shows, today America is 66 percent white and 33 percent "minority". While the African-American population has grown a bit, most of that increase has come from the recent historic wave of Asian and Hispanic immigrants. In my half a lifetime the “minority” population in the United States has tripled. When I was born one of out ten people walking around America were non-white. Today it is one out of three.

I think it is safe to say that America is going through the most profound demographic transformation in its long history. If current trends continue, America will be majority minority in my lifetime or soon thereafter. In a single lifetime we will have gone from a country made up largely of white Europeans to one that looks much more like the rest of the world.

If Senator Obama becomes the Democratic nominee this profound change will become something we all begin to discuss openly. Today the nation is having a big conversation about this change - whether it understands it or not - through our ongoing debate over immigration. While this debate has seen some of the most awful racist rhetoric and imagery since the days of Willie Horton, what should leave us all optimistic is that only 15 percent of the country is truly alarmed about the new wave of immigrants arriving in America. Consistently about 60 percent of the country says we need to leave all the undocumenteds here, indicating a pragmatic acceptance of the changes happening around our people and their families. Once again the uncommon wisdom of the common people appears to be prevailing here, and it is my hope, perhaps my prayer, that if Obama is the nominee American can begin to have a healthy and constructive discussion of our new population rather than what we have seen to date.

My final observation this morning is a point we focus on in our recent magazine article, The 50-Year Strategy. This election is the first post-Southern Strategy election since 1964. The Southern Strategy was the strategy used by Conservatives and the GOP to use race and other means to cleave the South from the Democrats. This strategy – welfare queens, Willie Horton, Reagan Democrats, tough on crime, an aggressive redistricting approach in 1990 – of course worked. It flipped the South (a base Democratic region since Thomas Jefferson’s day) to the GOP, giving them majorities in Congress and the Presidency. 20th century math and demography and politics dictated that without the South one could not have a majority in the US. But the arrival of a “new politics” of the 21st century – driven to a great degree by the new demographic realities of America - has changed this calculation, and has thankfully rendered the Southern Strategy and all its tools a relic of the 20th century. As Tom Schaller has noted, today the Democrats control both Houses of Congress without having a majority of southern Congressional seats, something never before achieved by the party of Jefferson, Jackson and Lyndon Johnson.

In our article we lay out what might become the next great majority strategy, one yet unnamed, that we believe may be used by the Democrats to build a durable 21st century majority. It will be built upon an America described above, and will embrace the new diversity of 21st century America at its core. At a strategic level, resistance to the new demographic reality is futile, which is why GOP leaders like George Bush, Ken Mehlman and even the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page (here and here) have railed against the GOP’s approach to immigration. They rightly understand that positioning their party against this new demography of America may render them as much a 20th century relic as the Southern Strategy itself.

Liberating American politics from the pernicious era of the Southern Strategy should be one the highest strategic priorities for left-of-center politics. Last night a powerful and thoughtful man emerged on the national stage who deeply understands - and is himself the embodiment of - the moral and political imperative of moving beyond this disappointing age. He appears to be summoning the courage, the vision, and the conviction to usher in a whole new – and better – era of politics for America. At its core this new politics will embrace diversity and difference rather than exploit it; at its core this new politics will be defined by hope and tolerance not fear and Tancredoism; at its core this new politics of tolerance is not just a requirement for a more just America here at home, but is a requirement if America is to reassert itself abroad in the much more globalized, multi-polar, interconnected, and open world of the 21st century.

And of course the arrival of this new post-Southern Strategy age of American politics will be accelerated by the extraordinary level of political participation of Millennials, the largest generation in American history, whose life experiences and values are much more Obama than Nixon.

Whatever happens in this campaign, the arrival of Barack Obama and his politics is a welcome development for our nation struggling to find its way in a new and challenging day.

- January 5, 2008