Immigration

PBS, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, USC's Annenberg School for Communication, Latino Public Broadcasting and Southwest Airlines are presenting a compelling new documentary by Phillip Rodriguez -- "Latinos '08" -- this Wednesday, October 8, at 9 p.m. ET.

PBS interviewed Simon for the new documentary, which is described here:

From Immigrants to Mainstream to Majority, Latinos '08 Focuses on the Unprecedented Clout of the Country;'s Fastest Growing Demographic - How Latinos Will Impact this Election and American Politics for Decades to Come

In early September, NDN released new polling by long-time NDN collaborator Sergio Bendixen on how the immigration issue is playing in key battleground states. In May, NDN released Hispanics Rising II, an important report on Hispanic electoral and demographic trends.

Check TV listings for your local PBS station and tune in Wednesday night!

NDN has followed U.S. Sen. John McCain's track record on Immigration. The latest is John McCain's second ad on immigration in Spanish. Andres commented on the ad during an interview with NPR:

"It's disturbing to me, as a Hispanic, to have someone who feels he can blatantly deceive and think people won't pay attention," says Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic programs at NDN..."

Marisa wrote about the ad, and NDN has long advocated on: 1) the importance of the Hispanic vote (this demographic could very well swing several southern and western states in this election), and 2) the issue of immigration as a motivating factor in the way many Hispanics vote regardless of whether they are native or foreign born - this is thanks to the GOP strategy of turning the debate on immigration into a debate on whether Hispanics should be in this country.

Actually, McCain's message on immigration is not mixed at all - since 2006 he's been consistently against immigration reform. The first and second ads focus on misrepresenting Obama's position on immigration, but at no time do they state McCain's position - much less go as far as saying that McCain supports immigration reform. Instead, since the GOP now recognizes that Hispanics respond negatively to these anti-Hispanic attacks, they created the same kind of degrading ad except this time they (inaccurately)attribute the comments about Mexico and immigrants to Barack Obama.

So will McCain's attempt at making Obama seem anti-Hispanic work? Andres is right - it's not working. NDN and analysts across the board believe the large numbers of Hispanic voters in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida could be decisive in those swing states. Our latest polling in these states showed that Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain by at least 30 points among Hispanics in the Southwest, and specifically on the issue of immigration, Hispanics believe Barack Obama would do a better job than John McCain. Even in Florida, where the candidates were even among Hispanics (42%-42%), when asked about immigration, 42% of voters trusted Barack Obama to better handle the issue over 37% preferring John McCain. The largest difference was in Nevada, where 60% of Hispanics trusted Barack Obama more on the issue of immigration, while only 18% preferred John McCain.

And the latest ad makes no sense when put in context - on the one hand, the McCain campaign launches this ad to attempt to portray Obama as anti-immigrant, while on the other hand, they create another ad in English and Spanish that attacks Obama for allegedly voting against allowing people to own guns in order to defend themselves from these "criminal aliens" who are "crossing illegally into our country." So which is it?

In a year when the Hispanic electorate has nearly doubled from what it was in 2000 (from 7.5 million to approximately 14 million this year), given that Hispanics make up a large part of the electorate in key Southern and Western states, and given that Hispanics are mobilizing to get out the vote, to vote early and vote absentee in those states, it does not bode well for John McCain.

It's been quite a week for NDN in the media.

Yesterday, Fox News gave Michael Moynihan and NDN's Green Project a lot of the credit (or blame? You Decide...) for getting legislation to create a Clean Energy Investment Bank into the House. Michael also got good mentions from the Carbon Tax Center and Carbon Control News.

Rob and Simon's critical work on solving the financial crisis and keeping people in their homes was covered in The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press (twice, here and here), The Chicago Sun-Times, The Huffington Post,  The Hill, and The Phoenix.

NDN's work on immigration reform and Hispanic issues was covered by several major news sources this week, including Newsweek, The Guardian, and NPR, as well as Fort Collins Now, The Miami New Times, HispanicTips.com, and Scoop.

The Washington Post and HispanicTips.com covered the expansion of NDN affiliate The New Policy Institute's Adelante campaign, which has new ads airing in the DC Metro area in addition to Colorado and Nevada. The Statesman also covered the campaign.

Finally, Simon is quoted in The American Prospect this week on the internal dynamics of the evolving Democratic majority in Congress.

Yesterday the McCain campaign revived the presidential immigration battle with another Spanish-language television commercial blaming Barack Obama for killing immigration reform.

According to the Washington Post the ad, called "Fraudulent," will air in Colorado and New Mexico:

Here's the script:

"So what's worse? That Barack Obama and his allies in Congress killed immigration reform? Or that their immigration attacks were called 'unfair,' 'absolutely and directly wrong' and even 'fraudulent' by the press. Or that Obama and his liberal allies think the U.S. has an immigration problem because Mexico is a quote, 'dysfunctional society'? They've said no to us long enough. This election, let's tell them no."

McCain's continued attacks on Obama over the immigration issue is evidence that at the national level the GOP is well aware they need Hispanic voters this November. Recent polling from NDN suggests that McCain could be in serious trouble in the Mountain West, particularly in states like Nevada and Colorado.

Makes one wonder, though, if he's bothered to pass that sentiment on to his friends and colleagues in down-ballot races this year. They certainly don't appear to be on message:

Senator Dole (R-NC) has spent most of the cycle touting her deportation-only strategy. You can see the ads here and here.

Congressman Virgil Goode (VA-05) is up with a negative ad on immigration and has been more than eager to blame immigrants and their "anchor babies" essentially calling for a repeal of birthright citizenship. You can watch it here.

Congressional Candidate Jay Love is up with an ad in Alabama claiming immigrants come to America to take our jobs.

And those are just a few examples. Overall, the Republican platform is decidedly deportation-only and largely anti-immigrant. Does Senator McCain really believe the Hispanic electorate won't notice?

Note to the McCain campaign: Latino voters speak English and can hear those anti-immigrant ads loud and clear, amigos. Running ads in Spanish won't erase the damage being done by your own party. The evidence is pretty clear, the GOP has Dos Caras where immigration is concerned.

UPDATE: What happens when the NRA tries to play to the nativist base and pander to the Latino vote at the same time? Hilarity ensues: How do you say backfire en Español?

This election cycle, many people have complained that the traditional media has not been doing its job all that well. The general complaint is that instead of giving voters the information they need to make informed and intelligent decisions, the ratings-driven mainstream media increasingly focuses on distractions and sound bites. Some have called for the reform of our traditional media; others have simply bypassed it.

We believe in engaging the non-traditional media. Here are a few of our new-media mentions from the past week:

DailyKos, The Latino Journal, and The South Chicagoan referenced our recent polls of Hispanic voters in key battleground states.

Simon and Rob Shapiro are featured in The American Prospect’s blog, Tapped, as well as Biodun Iginla’s BBC weblog, for their joint statement, “Keep People in Their Homes.” Shapiro also appears in Campaign for America’s Future.

Finally, Michael Moynihan, Director of NDN’s Green Project, has posts in The Huffington Post and Gristmill.

Hoy, el centro de investigación llamado The New Policy Institute, un filial de NDN sin fin de lucro y no-partidario, lanzó una campaña para motivar a ciudadanos Hispanohablantes a votar este Noviembre.

La campaña se llama Adelante. Comienza esta semana con anuncios a punto de saturación del mercado de radio en Colorado, y con una página de Internet, www.adelante08.org. La campaña hará dos cosas: por un lado ayudará a motivar al público a votar y por otro lado explicará el proceso para votar, incluyendo información sobre votación temprana y votación ausente. Se espera que gran parte del público serán Hispanos que van a votar por primera vez. La primera fase de la campaña comienza hoy en Colorado. Entre hoy y el día de las elecciones, Adelante lanzará cientos de anuncios en Denver (estaciones KBNO, KXPX, KJMN y KMXA), Colorado Springs/Pueblo (estaciones KNKN y KRYE), y en Fort Collins/Greeley (estación KGRE). Para escuchar el primer anuncio, “Acuérdate”, o leer el guión del anuncio y la traducción al Inglés, haga clic aquí.

Para más información sobre el electorado en los Estados Unidos, vea el reporte recientemente publicado por NDN, Hispanics Rising II. Durante muchos años, NDN y sus filiales han luchado para asegurarse de que la voz de la comunidad creciente de Latinos sea escuchada dentro del gran debate que informa a la democracia Estadounidense. Esta campaña es el capítulo mas reciente dentro de este esfuerzo de muchos años.

-- Guión del anuncio --

Español:

MUJER: ¿Qué tan lejos hemos llegado?
HOMBRE: Acuérdate de Roberto Clemente.
MUJER: De la misma Selena.
HOMBRE: O de César Chávez.
MUJER: Sí, hemos llegado muy lejos, pero no podemos vivir de glorias pasadas.
HOMBRE: Este año, de ti depende decidir si nos quedamos hasta donde hemos llegado o seguimos avanzando.
MUJER: Sigue adelante y vota.

Mensaje pagado por Adelante, NPI y el Tides Center.

Every year the United States takes a time out from September 15-October 15 to recognize the contributions of Hispanics in the United States as part of Hispanic Heritage Month. Hispanics are now recognized as the largest minority in the U.S. - the Census estimates that by 2042 one in four persons will be of Hispanic origin. As this year's Hispanic Heritage Month kicked off this week, it becomes clear that an unprecedented number of Latino voters could decide this year's election, Latinos are increasingly represented in government and industry, Latinos are a growing force in the media - as evidenced by the launch of shows like "Agenda" and "Al Punto" on Spanish language networks, and Hispanics are also becoming web and technology users in rapidly growing numbers.

For these reasons and more, the Pew Hispanic Center reported this week on a survey it conducted on the overall state of Latinos. The report reflects how Hispanics are bearing much of the current economic crisis, combined with suffering increased instances of discrimination.

Half (50%) of all Latinos overall (native and foreign born) say that the situation of Latinos in this country is worse now than it was a year ago, according to this nationwide survey of 2,015 Hispanic adults (higher than the average for non-latinos). Fully 63% of Latino immigrants say that the situation of Latinos has worsened over the past year. In 2007, just 42% of all adult Hispanic immigrants - and just 33% of all Hispanic adults - said the same thing. These increasingly downbeat assessments come at a time when the Hispanic community in this country--numbering approximately 46 million, or 15.4% of the total U.S. population--has been hit the hardest by rising unemployment.

Due mainly to the crisis in the housing and construction industry, the unemployment rate for Hispanics in the U.S. rose to 7.3% in the first quarter of 2008, well above the 4.7% rate for all non-Hispanics, and well above the 6.1% rate for Hispanics during the same period last year. As recently as the end of 2006, the gap between those two rates had shrunk to an historic low of 0.5 percentage points--4.9% for Latinos compared with 4.4% for non-Latinos, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The spike in Hispanic unemployment has hit immigrants especially hard. For the first time since 2003, the unemployment rate for Latinos not born in the United States was higher, at 7.5 percent, than the rate for native-born Latinos, at 6.9 percent, the report found. Latinos make up 14.2% of the U.S. labor force, or roughly 22 million people.

In addition to the economy, issues like immigration, access to health care, and discrimination continue to be of concern to Hispanics and to Hispanic voters. In the Pew survey, one-in-ten Hispanic adults - native-born U.S. citizens (8%) and immigrants (10%) alike - report that in the past year the police or other authorities have stopped them and asked them about their immigration status. Some Latinos are xperiencing other difficulties because of their ethnicity. One-in-seven(15%)say that they have had trouble in the past year finding or keeping a job because they are Latino. One-in-ten (10%) report the same about finding or keeping housing.

On the question of immigration enforcement, the Pew Center's research demonstrates the same data NDN found through our polling on immigration, released last week. Latinos disapprove of current enforcement-only measures - more than four-in-five Hispanics (81%) say that immigration enforcement should be left mainly to the federal authorities rather than the local police and 76% disapprove of workplace raids. Two-thirds (68%) of Latinos who worry a lot that they or someone close to them may be deported say that Latinos' situation in the country today is worse than it was a year ago, as do 63% of Latinos who have experienced job difficulties because of their ethnicity and 71% of Latinos who report housing difficulties because of their ethnicity.

Most Hispanics in the U.S. are native born, i.e., U.S. citizens legally not susceptible to deportation, therefore the fact that most Hispanics worry about raids, immigration, and even facing possible deportation reflects how the existing reckless "enforcement-only" policies are impacting not only foreign Hispanics, but U.S. citizens.

NDN has a history writing and speaking about the Hispanic community as one of the great American demographic stories of the 21st century, recognizing that it will be hard for any political party to build a 21st century political majority without this fast-growing electorate. Hispanics have become one of the most volatile and contested swing voting blocs in American politics, and they are responding to this attention. As reported in Hispanics Rising II, an analysis of the Hispanic electorate and their motivation, Hispanic immigrants are becoming increasingly involved, as reflected by the data released this week by the Immigration Policy Center, demonstrating a spike in citizenship applications. Immigrants want to be U.S. citizens, they want to apply for citizenship, often having to overcome virtually impossible obstacles to be able to pay the obscenely high application filing fees.

Therefore, political candidates will do well to pay attention to the many challenges facing Hispanics today. At the onset of Hispanic Heritage Month this week, both Presidential candidates released statements praising Hispanics' contributions to American society and their military service. The difference between the two statements is that Barack Obama also called for comprehensive immigration reform. On the other hand, John McCain didn't mention it. This is curious because polling for the last 3 or 4 years, including the latest polls conducted by NDN, consistently shows that immigration is of top concern for Hispanic voters.

NDN and long-time collaborator and pollster Sergio Bendixen recently released a poll that surveyed four key battleground states -- Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada -- on the issue of comprehensive immigration reform. The polls showed overwhelming support for such reform and showed that U.S. Sen. Barack Obama holds a significant lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain in three of the states and is in a dead heat in Florida, which until recently, has leaned Republican

The poll have generated considerable buzz in the media over the last 10 days:

- After mentioning it in his afternoon roundup last week, Markos Moulitsas (a.k.a. Kos) from DailyKos blogged about our poll again yesterday and included a more extended analysis of the findings, noting they show that support for comprehensive immigration reform among the general population is higher than many might believe.

- In an article entitled Latino Voters Key to Obama Win in Battleground States, People's Weekly World uses our poll to demonstate the importance of the Latino electorate in the 2008 presidential election.

- The Dallas Morning News featured an article called Texas Watch: Immigration Issue Expected to Resurface When Debates Start. The article quotes both Simon and Sergio and makes use of our poll.

- Mike Swift from The San Jose Mercury News quotes Simon and references the poll in his article, saying that they found "Obama leading McCain by 30 percentage points or more among Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, with Latinos angry at Republicans for the failure of immigration reform."

- USA TODAY'S Kathy Kiely covered the poll, quoting Simon in her article, Polls: Latinos favor Obama in 3 important battleground states.

- Marcelo Raimon covered the poll for ANSA, Italian News Agency.

- In his post, McCain's support boost does NOT include Latinos, The South Chicagoan's Gregory Tejeda cites NDN's new polls in his explanation of why he thinks McCain is not picking up new Latino support.

- UPI summarized the poll in its Top News roundup.

- The Thaiindian News reported on the polls in its report, Hispanics support Obama in four crucial states: Poll.

- Columnist Ruben Navarette cited NDN and Bendixen's polls in his recent piece, Palin could help McCain with Latino vote.

- The Tampa Bay Times blog, The Buzz, carried the USA TODAY article about the polls and the immigration reform issue.

- Adrian Perez from the Latino Journal also showcased the poll coverage from USA TODAY.

During his first inaugural address in 1933, President Roosevelt said these now-famous words:

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself -- nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

He was addressing a nation plunged into economic despair, a nation searching for someone to blame for these financial woes, a nation that was scared of massive technological shifts already underway, a nation open to demagogues.

Fast forwward to the Republican Convention in St. Paul in 2008. By any standard, it was a huge marketing success. Enormous flags on jumbotron screens. A homogenous audience that looks nothing like our country does today. What was the underlying theme of the Republican Convention? We don't have to change. We can turn back the clock and keep things just the way they were. When she spoke, Gov. Sarah Plain expertly played the crowd:

I grew up with those people. They're the ones who do some of the hardest work in America, who grow our food, and run our factories, and fight our wars. They love their country in good times and bad, and they're always proud of America.

New York Times columnist Frank Rich writes today about this fear of change in an excellent column. He notes the Republicans' use of peoples' fear of the demographic tidal wave headed our way that will leave whites the minority in the United States by 2042.

He also includes a paragraph on a favored Republican scapegoat: illegal immigrants.

And, last but hardly least, fear of illegal immigrants who do the low-paying jobs that Americans don’t want to do and of legal immigrants who do the high-paying jobs that poorly educated Americans are not qualified to do. No less revealing than Palin’s convention invocation of Pegler was the pointed omission of any mention of immigration, once the hottest Republican issue, by either her or McCain. Saying the word would have cued an eruption of immigrant-bashing ugliness, Pegler-style, before a national television audience. That wouldn’t play in the swing states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, where Obama already has a more than 2-to-1 lead among Hispanic voters. (Bush captured roughly 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004.)

In his paragraph on illegal immigrants, Rich links to a USA TODAY report about new polls NDN released last week. The polls, conducted by long-time NDN collaborator and pollster Sergio Bendixen, show overwhelming support for comprehensive immigration reform in four key battleground states: Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. The polls also show that U.S. Sen. Barack Obama holds a significant lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain among Hispanics in these states.

To learn more about why these four states matter so much in the new politics of the 21st century, read our report from earlier this year, Hispanics Rising II.

It's clear that the southwest and states with heavy Hispanic populations are the new battleground states -- and are part of the change that many people fear.

Palin and her fellow Republicans may play upon this fear of change, but the McCain campaign is no dummy.

Where was Palin campaigning yesterday? Carson City, Nevada.

It is clear that John McCain would rather lose his integrity than lose this election. After a series of lies and mischaracterizations that have been chronicled by numerous news sources, U.S. Sen. John McCain released an attack ad today about Barack Obama's record on immigration.  Having participated in the immigration debate during 2007 as a Hill staffer as it was happening, and having delved into the dozens of amendments thrown at the bill per minute by those who would try to block immigration reform, and having had to sort through all the "poison pill" amendments, I feel a responsibility to distinguish between truth and fiction in regards to an issue as important as immigration reform.  The truth is that Senator Obama proposed an amendment to the section on a temporary worker program in order to ensure that those workers are a paid a prevailaing wage - i.e., to help push wages up.  It is disturbing to see this attempt to misinform Hispanic voters, as members of the Democratic leadership are accused in this ad for having halted immigration reform, when they were the ones who presented the legislation to the floor and fought to have the issue voted on and passed - not once, but twice.  The reason immigration even came to a vote twice is that many Republicans - including President George W. Bush - also recognize the dire need to fix the broken immigration system, and there was thought to be enough support at the time for reform.  What really happened: there were insufficient votes to close debate and move to vote on immigration reform because the Republicans who had pledged to support the legislation caved to the anti-immigrant rhetoric and voted against cloture.  The truth is John McCain changed his position and did not participate in the 2007 debate to provide the necessary political leadership to pass reform.  And that could have made a difference - one could argue that it was John McCain's absence and lack of leadership on this issue that led to its demise.  I'll refer you to our Hispanics Rising report, where we track the immigration debate and John McCain's abandonment of his own reform legislation.  The truth is, John McCain abandoned the reform he had once promoted because he feared the political ramifications.  As reported by the Washington Post (see Hispanics Rising), John McCain told his party "I got the message", immigration reform was not popular.  Sadly, it remains very necessary.  

Here is the translation of the ad, called "Which Side Are They On":

ANNCR:Obama and his Congressional allies say they are on the side of immigrants. But are they?
The press reports that their efforts were 'poison pills' that made immigration reform fail. The result:
No guest worker program.
No path to citizenship.
No secure borders.
No reform.
Is that being on our side?
Obama and his Congressional allies ready to block immigration reform, but not ready to lead.
JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.
ANNCR: Paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee. Approved by McCain-Palin 2008.

I must say, this ad insults my intelligence, and it is a shame because John McCain was the first to come out promising to keep this campaign "clean", and to not reach for baseless attacks like this one.  You will see below, McCain said, "Do we have to go to the lowest common denominator? I don't think so". Well Mr. McCain, you already have - this is just another example of how low you can go. Is lying to voters putting "country first"? I don't think so.