NDN

PBS, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, USC's Annenberg School for Communication, Latino Public Broadcasting and Southwest Airlines are presenting a compelling new documentary by Phillip Rodriguez -- "Latinos '08" -- this Wednesday, October 8, at 9 p.m. ET.

PBS interviewed Simon for the new documentary, which is described here:

From Immigrants to Mainstream to Majority, Latinos '08 Focuses on the Unprecedented Clout of the Country;'s Fastest Growing Demographic - How Latinos Will Impact this Election and American Politics for Decades to Come

In early September, NDN released new polling by long-time NDN collaborator Sergio Bendixen on how the immigration issue is playing in key battleground states. In May, NDN released Hispanics Rising II, an important report on Hispanic electoral and demographic trends.

Check TV listings for your local PBS station and tune in Wednesday night!

Two major articles in today's Washington Post and New York Times focus in-depth on how the nation's worsening economy is presenting new opportunities -- and new challenges -- for the campaigns of U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain.

It looks like things were going McCain's way after the GOP convention -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had electrified the base, Obama was losing ground and the Arizona senator took a slim lead.

Then the nation's finanical markets crashed, Palin-mania has subsided as many Americans didn't like what they've seen post-St. Paul and Democrats traditionally do better with pocketbook issues.

Now McCain has pulled out of Michigan and Obama is competitive in traditionally red states like Florida where foreclosures are epidemic; nationally, the economic news just keeps getting worse.

Amidst all of this, yesterday, I picked up a book, "Deer Hunting with Jesus" by Joe Bageant. It is in turn fascinating, frightening and depressing. The book addresses a question that has always bothered me: why do people who are so clearly hurt by the GOP's economic policies keep voting for them again and again and again? Another article in today's Washington Post highlights the economic struggles of a suburban Michigan enclave and focues on why, while some people there may vote for Obama, others struggling to make ends meet are still planning to vote for McCain, despite the fact that his economic proposals do nothing to help them or their children.

Until progressives find a way to reach the voters written about in "Deer Hunting with Jesus" and the Washington Post article, we will continue to lose their votes because they will continue to vote, not on economic issues, but social "hot button issues" such as abortion, guns and sex education. And, sadly, as many of them admitted, they simply will not vote for an African-American candidate. All in all, it is not their failure, but our failure, to explain to them how we will not allow globalization to leave them behind; how we will invest in their education; how we will ready them as we accelerate toward a 21st century economy.

In 2007, NDN conducted a series of polls on the how Americans view the economy. They are well worth reading here and here. I know I will be looking at them for answers.

Lastly, in what can be at best called a sophmoric effort to change the subject, the McCain campaign said yesterday that:

We are looking for a very aggressive last 30 days," said Greg Strimple, one of McCain's top advisers. "We are looking forward to turning a page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans." "We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity. [Washington Post, 10/04/08]

In response, the Obama campaign has launched a new ad on the economy, highlighting what has happened over the last eight years during the Bush-Cheney reign.

Watch it here:

NDN has followed U.S. Sen. John McCain's track record on Immigration. The latest is John McCain's second ad on immigration in Spanish. Andres commented on the ad during an interview with NPR:

"It's disturbing to me, as a Hispanic, to have someone who feels he can blatantly deceive and think people won't pay attention," says Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic programs at NDN..."

Marisa wrote about the ad, and NDN has long advocated on: 1) the importance of the Hispanic vote (this demographic could very well swing several southern and western states in this election), and 2) the issue of immigration as a motivating factor in the way many Hispanics vote regardless of whether they are native or foreign born - this is thanks to the GOP strategy of turning the debate on immigration into a debate on whether Hispanics should be in this country.

Actually, McCain's message on immigration is not mixed at all - since 2006 he's been consistently against immigration reform. The first and second ads focus on misrepresenting Obama's position on immigration, but at no time do they state McCain's position - much less go as far as saying that McCain supports immigration reform. Instead, since the GOP now recognizes that Hispanics respond negatively to these anti-Hispanic attacks, they created the same kind of degrading ad except this time they (inaccurately)attribute the comments about Mexico and immigrants to Barack Obama.

So will McCain's attempt at making Obama seem anti-Hispanic work? Andres is right - it's not working. NDN and analysts across the board believe the large numbers of Hispanic voters in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida could be decisive in those swing states. Our latest polling in these states showed that Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain by at least 30 points among Hispanics in the Southwest, and specifically on the issue of immigration, Hispanics believe Barack Obama would do a better job than John McCain. Even in Florida, where the candidates were even among Hispanics (42%-42%), when asked about immigration, 42% of voters trusted Barack Obama to better handle the issue over 37% preferring John McCain. The largest difference was in Nevada, where 60% of Hispanics trusted Barack Obama more on the issue of immigration, while only 18% preferred John McCain.

And the latest ad makes no sense when put in context - on the one hand, the McCain campaign launches this ad to attempt to portray Obama as anti-immigrant, while on the other hand, they create another ad in English and Spanish that attacks Obama for allegedly voting against allowing people to own guns in order to defend themselves from these "criminal aliens" who are "crossing illegally into our country." So which is it?

In a year when the Hispanic electorate has nearly doubled from what it was in 2000 (from 7.5 million to approximately 14 million this year), given that Hispanics make up a large part of the electorate in key Southern and Western states, and given that Hispanics are mobilizing to get out the vote, to vote early and vote absentee in those states, it does not bode well for John McCain.

It's been quite a week for NDN in the media.

Yesterday, Fox News gave Michael Moynihan and NDN's Green Project a lot of the credit (or blame? You Decide...) for getting legislation to create a Clean Energy Investment Bank into the House. Michael also got good mentions from the Carbon Tax Center and Carbon Control News.

Rob and Simon's critical work on solving the financial crisis and keeping people in their homes was covered in The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press (twice, here and here), The Chicago Sun-Times, The Huffington Post,  The Hill, and The Phoenix.

NDN's work on immigration reform and Hispanic issues was covered by several major news sources this week, including Newsweek, The Guardian, and NPR, as well as Fort Collins Now, The Miami New Times, HispanicTips.com, and Scoop.

The Washington Post and HispanicTips.com covered the expansion of NDN affiliate The New Policy Institute's Adelante campaign, which has new ads airing in the DC Metro area in addition to Colorado and Nevada. The Statesman also covered the campaign.

Finally, Simon is quoted in The American Prospect this week on the internal dynamics of the evolving Democratic majority in Congress.

Las Vegas, NV - The conversation about Early Voting continues on throughout the country fueled in part by a court ruling in Ohio in which the Republican Party was attempting to prevent the state of Ohio from allowing a window in which citizens could register to vote and cast a ballot early essentially providing a temporary same-day registration period.  The Republican Party lost the suit and Early Voting began this week in Ohio.

Early Voting has now been in practice for several election cycles and could prove decisive in several battleground states.  In Nevada, it is expected that more than half of all voters will cast ballots before election day.  The Washington Post writes that Nov. 4 Isn't the Only Election Day. 

The early-voting trend does not benefit one party over the other, experts say, because each is targeting infrequent voters. On the Democratic side, that means urban, often minority voters and students. On the Republican side, it is older voters and those in more rural areas who favor absentee ballots.

For both campaigns, the numbers are critical. In the highly competitive states of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, nearly half of voters are expected to cast ballots early this year, Gronke said.

In Ohio, early voting has shaped the candidates' operations.

Enthusiasm in Ohio over Early Voting prompted people to pitch tents and wait to be the first to cast a ballot.  Seeing so many people excited about participating in our democracy and casting a ballot is a positive sign for our country. 

In 2000, Cuban-Americans represented 70 percent of Florida's Hispanic electorate. Today they make up less than half of the Latino electorate in that state, largely attributable to a large influx of new voters originally from Puerto Rico, Colombia, Venezuela and other Central and South American countries. The result: Florida's Hispanic demographic is increasingly reflective of the transformation the Hispanic community has undergone across the country - increasingly diverse and not as party-loyal. As a result, both political parties are working to win over what Newsweek called the "Latino mix" in a piece today by Arian Campo-Flores. NDN has analyzed the trend of Florida's Hispanic population becoming more diverse and less affiliated with the Republican party for years, and conducted a major poll in Florida in 2006.

It is Hispanics who make Florida increasingly relevant this year. By all accounts, U.S. Sen. John McCain would not have won the Florida primary - and thus would probably not have been his party's presidential nominee - had he not won the 54% of the Hispanic vote that he won in the Republican primary election, while he only won 33% of the white vote and took that election with 36% of the vote overall. Thus, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is fighting in Florida, just today President Bill Clinton - loved by Hispanic Democrats and many overall - was campaigning for him in the state. As explained in Newsweek by our friend and collaborator, Sergio Bendixen:

"Now they need to have a domestic message"-terrain that favors Democrats these days. If he manages to capitalize on the opportunity, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama could outdo John Kerry's performance in 2004, when the Massachusetts senator captured 44 percent of Florida's Latino vote. "If [Obama] gets 55 percent, then he would pretty much ensure winning the state," says Sergio Bendixen, a pollster for the New Democratic Network (NDN) and expert in Hispanic public opinion."

And that is the relevance of the Latino Mix. As NDN explains at length in Hispanics Rising II, party ID among Hispanics can change very quickly, and this election in particular does not favor the party in the White House. Republican anti-immigrant campaigns have been perceived as anti-Hispanic, Latinos have the highest rate of unemployment as a result of this economic crisis, and the latest - now minorities are being blamed by right-wing conservatives for the housing crisis. 2008 primary exit polls showed a 66% increase in Hispanic turnout in Democratic primaries and Hispanic party ID became 72% Democrat, while in 2004 it was closer to 60%. Our latest polling data shows that the Presidential race among Hispanics in Florida is in a dead heat - 42% favoring McCain and 42% favoring Obama.

The question remains - as Florida's Hispanic electorate grows and becomes more complex, who benefits? I would say Hispanics do. The reality of a more complex demographic is that to win Florida, John McCain and Barack Obama will have to do so based on the strength of non-Cuban Hispanic support.

Las Vegas, NV - Today CQ Politics published a story titled Early Voting, Underway in Ohio and Elsewhere, Scrambles Campaign Logic that provides a good overview of how this process is impacting campaign strategy and voter participation.

Still, 31 states now allow some form of no-excuse, in-person early voting, according to a recent compilation by the National Association of Secretaries of State, an organization of state officials who oversee election laws.

Perhaps one-third of the 2008 electorate will vote before Election Day, counting those who visit "early voting" polling places set up by state authorities and those who use longer-established "absentee ballot" procedures - often limited to those who say they will be out of their home precincts or otherwise unable to make it to a polling station on Election Day - that are available in some form in all 50 states.

As a Nevada resident, Early Voting has been an important part of our election process and has reshaped how parties and candidates plan their get-out-the-vote strategies.  I am proud of the fact that our government has engaged in a process to make voting more accessible to citizens.  Living in a 24 hour town, there are many voters who would not be able to participate if not for Early Voting.

Nine days ago, Dr. Rob Shapiro, Chair of NDN's Globalization Initiative, and NDN President Simon Rosenberg launched a "Keep People in Their Homes" effort to ensure that any proposal to put our financial markets and economy back on track include provisions to do just that. 

This strategy is now one of the core points of the Obama plan. Yesterday, Senator Hillary Clinton embraced the idea in a powerful op-ed, "Let's Keep People in Their Homes," in the Wall Street Journal. Today, the New York Times embraced it in its lead editorial, "What About the Rest of Us?"

On Tuesday of this week, Rob and Simon released a more detailed essay, entitled, "Keep People in Their Homes." On Wednesday, Rob wrote an important piece, "Back to the Basics: The Treasury Plan Won't Work." Rob's arguments from that essay received excellent coverage today in an insightful Wall Street Journal article, "Bailout Proposal Gets Hung Up Over Central Issue: Will It Work?" by Deborah Solomon and colleagues. Also today, NDN Fellow and Green Project Director Michael Moynihan argued in his essay, "Notes on the Financial Crisis," that the Administration needs to stop using panic as a negotiating tactic in an effort to reach an agreement.

I encourage you to read the Obama statement, Senator Clinton's op-ed and the New York Times editorial above.

NDN's argument is simple: among all the things the government can do to address the financial crisis, there is at least one thing it must do -- keep people in their homes. Keeping people in their homes will help stabilize the declining assets that are causing the current financial market collapse. We must drastically reduce the foreclosures that have destablized  the housing market underneath all the leveraged debt that is weakening our financial markets. Unless we do so, those markets will continue to weaken, even with a $700 billion bailout. And homeowners will continue to lose their homes. 

Passing an economic rescue plan that does not directly address declining home prices by helping people keep their homes is a risk too great for the American people to take. 

That's why we are asking today for you to do more than just read our e-mails. We are asking you to take action. We are asking you to call or e-mail your Senators and House Members, regardless of party, and insist that this provision be in any final economic plan. If you know Members of Congress outside of your state, call or e-mail them as well. 

While it is critical for Washington to act this week, it is more important that we do the right thing rather than the expedient thing. We cannot accept any deal that doesn't address the struggles of everyday people, particularly a deal crafted by an Administration that has gotten so little right these last 7 1/2 years. Please join us and make sure our elected officials do what they need to do in these next few days. The stakes are too great for us to get this one wrong.

Today, The New Policy Institute, a non-partisan 501(c)(3) affiliate of NDN, is excited to announce that we are expanding our new Spanish-language voter mobilization campaign, Adelante, into Nevada.
 
Adelante, Spanish for "Moving Forward," kicked off Tuesday with an extensive radio buy in Colorado and the launch of a Web site, www.adelante08.org. The campaign encourages people to vote and explains the process of voting, including early and absentee voting, to what is projected to be a large pool of first-time Hispanic voters.

Today, Adelante will begin airing the same ad, "Acuérdate," or "Remember," that is airing in Colorado, in the Las Vegas media market. The ad will air on Las Vegas radio stations KISF, KWID, KRGT and KRNN.

To listen to the ad, click here. 

The Adelante campaign was launched with the support of people just like you. You can help us add more ads to the campaign and expand into other states by contributing today. Please click here to support Adelante, or contact David O'Donnell at dodonnell@ndn.org or 202-544-9200 to learn more about what you can help the New Policy Institute do.

Hoy, el centro de investigación llamado The New Policy Institute, un filial de NDN sin fin de lucro y no-partidario, lanzó una campaña para motivar a ciudadanos Hispanohablantes a votar este Noviembre.

La campaña se llama Adelante. Comienza esta semana con anuncios a punto de saturación del mercado de radio en Colorado, y con una página de Internet, www.adelante08.org. La campaña hará dos cosas: por un lado ayudará a motivar al público a votar y por otro lado explicará el proceso para votar, incluyendo información sobre votación temprana y votación ausente. Se espera que gran parte del público serán Hispanos que van a votar por primera vez. La primera fase de la campaña comienza hoy en Colorado. Entre hoy y el día de las elecciones, Adelante lanzará cientos de anuncios en Denver (estaciones KBNO, KXPX, KJMN y KMXA), Colorado Springs/Pueblo (estaciones KNKN y KRYE), y en Fort Collins/Greeley (estación KGRE). Para escuchar el primer anuncio, “Acuérdate”, o leer el guión del anuncio y la traducción al Inglés, haga clic aquí.

Para más información sobre el electorado en los Estados Unidos, vea el reporte recientemente publicado por NDN, Hispanics Rising II. Durante muchos años, NDN y sus filiales han luchado para asegurarse de que la voz de la comunidad creciente de Latinos sea escuchada dentro del gran debate que informa a la democracia Estadounidense. Esta campaña es el capítulo mas reciente dentro de este esfuerzo de muchos años.

-- Guión del anuncio --

Español:

MUJER: ¿Qué tan lejos hemos llegado?
HOMBRE: Acuérdate de Roberto Clemente.
MUJER: De la misma Selena.
HOMBRE: O de César Chávez.
MUJER: Sí, hemos llegado muy lejos, pero no podemos vivir de glorias pasadas.
HOMBRE: Este año, de ti depende decidir si nos quedamos hasta donde hemos llegado o seguimos avanzando.
MUJER: Sigue adelante y vota.

Mensaje pagado por Adelante, NPI y el Tides Center.