NDN released a survey in mid-February documenting trends within the Hispanic electorate. This survey incorporates those results, and adds the results from the most recent presidential primary contests that occurred on March 4th. As with the first survey, the analysis is centered on states where exit polling is available to identify the estimated percentage of Hispanic voters from the general electorate.
The findings of our research confirm trends in the Hispanic community that we saw emerge in 2006 – Hispanics are trending very Democratic and voting in much higher numbers. So far this year, 78% of Hispanics who have voted in Presidential election contests have voted Democratic. In those states where Hispanics are tracked, results have shown a dramatic increase in their share of the overall vote, skyrocketing 67%, from 9% of the overall vote in 2004 to 15% in 2008.
These results are just the latest in a long line of evidence indicating that the anti-immigrant stance of the GOP, first adopted in late 2005, has turned the Hispanic community against Republicans and has encouraged them to vote in unprecedented numbers. The votes in 2008 so far confirm previous studies suggesting that Hispanics are now a very energized and very Democratic community.
These developments pose serious problems for John McCain and his Party in 2008. A recent report by NDN, “Hispanics Rising”, quotes Mathew Dowd, the chief pollster for President Bush, as saying that for Republicans to win the White House they must garner between 38-40% In open ballot contests so far the GOP has received only 22% of the overall Hispanic vote, and McCain has received about half of that vote. Even in Arizona, Senator Obama received more Hispanics votes than Senator McCain.
As Michael Gerson, President Bush’s former chief speechwriter recently wrote:
I have never seen an issue where the short-term interests of Republican presidential candidates in the primaries were more starkly at odds with the long-term interests of the party itself. At least five swing states that Bush carried in 2004 are rich in Hispanic voters -- Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida. Bush won Nevada by just over 20,000 votes. A substantial shift of Hispanic voters toward the Democrats in these states could make the national political map unwinnable for Republicans ... Some in the party seem pleased. They should be terrified. (Washington Post, 09/19/2007)
Key Findings
- Of the Hispanics who have voted in the Presidential primaries and caucuses, 78% have voted for the Democratic candidates, 22% have voted for the Republicans.
- The share of the Democratic primary audience in those states with Hispanics populations that is Hispanic has skyrocketed, increasing from 9% of the overall electorate in 2004 to 15% in 2008, a 67% increase.
- The number of Hispanics voting in the Democratic primaries more than tripled from 2004 to 2008, passing the 3 million mark.
- In the recent Texas Democratic Primary, the electorate was majority minority (54%).
To view the full report click here.
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